I’ve thought for a while that the story about Angela Rayner’s living arrangements was all light and no heat and yesterday’s segment on the Politics Show just confirmed that. I cringed so much watching the performance by James Daly that my shoe size shrank by three sizes, he’s the one who made the complaint and that’s the best he can do. TSE
I am one of those people who still thinks the general election result will be better for the Tories than the current polls imply (although I am not ruling out a 1931 in reverse result) but I am intrigued by this analysis from the political data scientist of The Economist. This nowcast sees the Tories win just short of 200 seats which would be comparable to the 2005 general election result which every Tory would take right now. I still…
On Betfair you can get odds of 100/1 on Liz Truss to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, my money is on backing the lettuce laying Liz Truss in this market, it would be an act of political seppuku by the Tories to install her as leader, just look at the Ipsos polling on her. I really do worry about her lack of self awareness and denial about her disastrous stint as Prime Minister, somebody this deluded shouldn’t be working…
There’s obviously the London Mayoral election, ten other Mayoral elections and the PCC contests but I’m going to look at a key Council. Nuneaton & Bedworth Council covers all or part of the Conservative-held constituencies of Nuneaton and North Warwickshire. The Conservatives took control in 2021 and in 2022 when half the 34 seats were contested, strengthened their hold and currently have 27 seats with Labour on 5 and the Greens on 2. Boundary changes have increased the seat number…
I love facts like this. TSE
Can we please have constituency markets and spreads for the general election? We are potentially a few weeks away from a general election and as far as I can see there are no individual constituency markets so we cannot bet on the most intriguing seats like Didcot & Wantage. There are also no seat spread betting opportunities which is where loins are girded and some of my biggest ever political wins have occured. I followed Mike Smithson in selling Tory…
I am sticking with my assumption of an October/November election. TSE
The world is changed, I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air, I see it in the polling, the era of Boris Johnson is over. The stand out figure is that even a majority of Leavers do not want him back as an MP, even more so than the fact 2019 Tories are evenly split on the question. If this question asked if the country wanted Boris Johnson back as…