521 of the 852 sample in YouGov CON members poll were aged 60+
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2013
76% of CON members polled tell YouGov that Dave doing well 23% say he's doing badly
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2013
Today's issues tracker from YouGov sees just 32% of UKIP voters saying Europe is one of top 3 issues facing country. pic.twitter.com/20GmVJ8or4
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2013
Today sees the publication of the EU referendum bill and, coincidentally the latest issues tracker from YouGov which unlike Ipsos-MORI does prompt when asking respondents to name the important areas of concern.
The detailed breakdown is in the YouGov table above which shows the party cross tabs.
This has been remarked on before but that just 32% of UKIP voters naming Europe reinforces the point that many continue to make about the salience of the EU as an issue.
It has far less potency than many Tories would like to think. Indeed the polling shows that just one in five CON supporters name it as an important issue.
All this does suggests that the referendum bill is not going to be the magic bullet that many on the blue team are looking for.
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Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.
If you’ve always been a lurker, you’re on the Edge of Heaven, why not enter heaven tonight and delurk.
The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)
TSE
Boris & Theresa May now 12/1 joint 2nd favourites to be next PM. EdM 8/11 favourite. http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K See pic.twitter.com/YiclNEMU6b
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2013
@MSmithsonPB interesting that if those 12 names two are brothers, two are married and three were in the bullingdon club together #we'recrap
— Mr Thompson (@FeastSpectre) June 18, 2013
Latest YouGov "best on Schools & Education" ratings point to Gove's policies being a driver of LD > LAB switching pic.twitter.com/ZiTIbhgPKw
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2013
Whenever there is any polling involving the coalition’s education policies or Michael Gove personally the key swing group of voters next time, 2010 Lib Dems, appear to be taking a hostile view.
Today we have YouGov’s regular ratings on the best party for different policy areas and there’s been a move to Labour on Schools/Education. The party was 5% ahead – now that’s up to 9%.
Where it gets very interesting is on the very different view that the remaining Lib Dem voters have compared with those who supported the party at GE2010.
The chart below shows the breakdown – just click on the tab to see the differences.
As can be seen 59% of current LD voters back their own party as you might expect. But just look at the split amongst 2010 Lib Dems where LAB policies are ahead with a 22% gap over the Tories.
Now what this polling doesn’t show is the extent to which this might have influenced voting intentions.
As I keep on saying 24% of the GB vote in 2010 went to the LDs. That’s going to be a lot smaller at the election and how this segment reacts could be good pointer.
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Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.
If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, it will be a Red Letter Day the day you post for the first time.
The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)
With a reshuffle likely in July Justine Greening moves to favourite slot at Ladbrokes for next cabinet exit. pic.twitter.com/OqdpzI8Hl1
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 17, 2013
If more than one cabinet leaves on the same Ladbrokes operate their dead heat rules. Thus if three of the 23 members settlement would be based on a third of your stake at the odds that you originally got.
The art here is to spot a long shot who might just be in the running.
A pitfall here is that the bet only applies to official cabinet members not to those are allowed to attend. In last reshuffle quite a few cabinet ministers lost their places but we’re still allowed to attend.
I don’t envisage any changes amongst the Lib Dem five.
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There’s a wide awareness of the fact that the Lib Dems, who chalked up 24% of the GB vote in 2010, will be putting 100% of their efforts into no more than 75 seats – the 57 they are defending and a few more where they think they are in with a shout.
All the focus has been on what this will do in the LD battlegrounds but it could also make a big difference in the LAB-CON marginals themselves where Grant Shapps is hoping the yellow vote won’t be hit too much thus blunting the LAB challenge.
But the LD plan to have the most focused election campaign ever means that there will be nothing more than token Lib Dem efforts in the remaining 555 constituencies.
The campaigns there will consist of little more than utilising the facility that’s provided to all candidates to have one leaflet distributed by the Royal Mail. Candidates will be put up by the yellows and will be on the ballot but that is about all.
Activists will be encouraged to put their efforts into their targets helped by the party’s new distributed phone-banking system which was put through its paces in Easteigh.
The impact of this, I believe, will be magnified in the 80 or so key LAB-CON battlegrounds where the red and blue campaigns will be going full throttle and more.
Given that the polling is showing that Labour is picking up the lion’s share of 2010 LDs who’ve switched the absence of LD campaiging simply adds to the pressure on the Tories. For the last thing Grant Shapps wants is for there to be any more switching.
The general election in the non-marginals will be very different for everybody. None of the parties will be putting that much effort in where it doesn’t matter.
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