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Three days to go and three big developments overnight

May 3rd, 2016

New Holyrood poll suggests that the Tories could still overhaul LAB to come 2nd

Ex CON general election candidate quits party over Zac’s campaign

And a plot to oust Corbyn




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My Bloomberg programme on BREXIT and political betting

May 2nd, 2016



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At GE2015 the big picture from online polls was that LAB was leading but CON was well ahead in phone surveys

May 2nd, 2016

A pointer to EURef polling?

With the huge split between online and phone polls that we are seeing for the referendum it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how the two modes did during the official GE2015 campaign period.

The chart could not be more clear. Throughout the campaign the big picture from phone polls was that the Tories had the edge while with internet polls it was Labour.

    We should note that being lumped in with all the other online firms is unfair to Opinium. All but one of its GE2015 polls recorded CON leads and the other one had it as level–pegging. Amongst the latest batch of EURef polls Opinium is one of just two online firms to have IN ahead.

A guide to June 23rd? Maybe. It is interesting the punters seem more influenced by the phone surveys.

Mike Smithson





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If Zac loses London and the Brexiters fail it will say a lot about the declining influence of the press

May 2nd, 2016

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If the London mayoral race and the BREXIT referendum go according to the betting then it will be very much against what most of the press has been promoting.

The Sadiq Khan campaign for the Mayoralty has to overcome a strong media bias in favour of Zac Goldsmith. The above from yesterday’s Mail on Sunday is typical.

The capital’s main newspaper, the Standard, has been very anti-Khan and has been more than willing to echo the Goldsmith campaign efforts to try to smear the LAB man.

It’s coverage of the election’s polls has been abominable even those which it has commissioned itself. Sometimes trying to find the key figures has been hard and there’s barely been a mention of other surveys such as the one on Friday that had Khan 20% ahead.

In the BREXIT race the line up of national papers has been very much for OUT. The Times, Telegraph, Mail and the Sun have been highly partisan and in terms of circulations totally dwarf those in favour of IN.

So if London and the referendum go according to the betting (Sadiq and REMAIN are strong odds-on favourites) it will suggest that the printed press has nothing like the influence it used to have.

It’s known that REMAIN is following the successful Tory general election campaign and making big use of social media to reach selected audiences with bespoke messages.

Mike Smithson





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Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life

May 1st, 2016

These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum

Typo alert – The below tweet I think he means Foreign Sec, I hope

TSE



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From Blair to Corbyn, Livingstone, and Hitler, 19 years is a long time in politics

May 1st, 2016

Can things only get better for Labour? Not whilst the stench of anti-Semitism swirls around the party

Nineteen years ago today, Tony Blair led the Labour Party back into government after eighteen years in opposition. 418 MPs elected, 145 gains, and a 179 seat majority. The way Labour and Corbyn are heading, they will be lucky to have 179 MPs at the next election, even before Ken Livingstone’s attempt to educate the country about Nazis for Zionism.

These sort of things can take decades for a party to recover from. Twenty-five years after the Tory Party introduced Section 28, the party will still having to deal with the legacy of that pernicious piece of legislation, if Labour don’t resolve the current perceptions of anti-Semitism swirling around the party, then it might take a similar time for the Labour Party to recover from perceptions that they are the new nasty party.

The tragedy for the Labour Party is that in less than a week there are a plethora of elections, and the events of the past week makes it harder for the Labour candidates in these elections to win. It also helps to negate any criticism Labour have of Zac Goldsmith’s campaign to be Mayor of London, as evidenced in the tweet below, which isn’t good news for Sadiq Khan nor Labour.

TSE



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It’s the economy, stupid

May 1st, 2016

If Leave wants to win they need to show that Brexit is the better option for the economy and the financial wellbeing of voters.

We’ve been here before. We see the headline voting intention figures showing it neck and neck, yet the supplementaries on the economy show one side extending their clear lead further. Looking at the above supplementary questions from this week’s YouGov poll that showed Leave ahead by 1%, this referendum campaign, with the supplementaries showing more and more voters saying Brexit would be bad for the economy, jobs, and their personal financial situation, with Remain being the best option, is all very reminiscent of the polling we saw at the 2015 general election, the Tories and Labour tied but the Tories significantly ahead on the economy.

The YouGov supplementaries aren’t atypical.

David Cameron and George Osborne have their detractors, but it appears that with their recent Treasury analysis, and President Obama’s intervention, more and more voters see Brexit as damaging to the UK economy, jobs, and to voters personally. Focusing on the risks of Brexit is a clever strategy as the polls show the economy will be the most important issue in how voters decide which way they will vote in this referendum.

A few weeks ago ComRes found the most important issue in how voters would vote in the the referendum was the economy at 47% followed by immigration at 24%. Ipsos Mori had a similar finding. As with the Scottish Independence referendum, I expect a majority of voters won’t choose to make themselves worse off, saying to voters that they can be only £25 per year better/worse off is enough to change the minds of some of the voters in this referendum.

Unless Brexiters manage to improve the economic polling figures, I fully expect Remain to win. The voters won’t vote for anything that will make the country and themselves worse off. With prominent Leaver Arron Banks very publicly claiming earlier on this week each household losing £4,300 a year would be a price worth paying for Brexit and the Economists for Brexit saying Brexit would mostly eliminate manufacturing, Cameron & Osborne must privately be echoing the mantra of Colonel John ‘Hannibal’ Smith, ‘I love it when a plan comes together.’

Once the local council, London Mayoral, and devolved elections are out of the way, the referendum campaign proper starts a week on Monday, that might be enough time for Leave to turn the economic perceptions of Brexit in their favour by June 23rd.

TSE



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Opinum has EURef outcome for maximum chaos: England & Wales vote OUT but Scotland means it’s overall for IN

April 30th, 2016

Opinium #EURef poll national splits

ENGLAND 41% to 43% to OUT
WALES 35% to 42% to OUT
SCOTLAND 51% to 34% IN
OVERALL 42% to 41% to IN

Tonight’s Opinium poll has a projected outcome which, if it happened, would create the most massive post-June 23rd eruptions – a narrow IN win but with England and Wales voting OUT. The national region splits are above.

How wonderful for political anoraks to have such an outcome. We must remember Northern Ireland as well which is not normally included in national polling. What we’ve seen from there is that it would be like Scotland.

Also in the Opinium poll a big move to the Tories on voting intention – not a good pointer for the red team on Thursday.

CON: 38% (+5)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 15% (-2)
LDEM: 5% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)

Meanwhile this is worth looking at as Zac goes for the Indian vote.

Mike Smithson