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The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next month’s local and EU elections

April 23rd, 2019

Down 15-20 on the Tory GE2017 election outcome

To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mess as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later.

Although the polls in the table above are strictly about the next general election they probably give a good pointer to fact that it is going to be a struggle for the blue team especially as we’re getting all these reports of significant part of the Conservative General Election vote from last time now saying that it will be voting for Farage brexit party.

There is little doubt that the locals will see the Tories losing a lot of council seats and the interesting question is which party will be the big gainer. ChangeUK has hardly put up any candidates and Lib Dems and Greens are working hard, sometimes quite closely together, and that could prove very promising for them.

Whether the parliamentary Conservative Party is able to change the rules to allow a further challenge to Theresa May is hard to say. But there’s little doubt that if her party has big losses on May 2nd then that will make it extremely difficult for her. The real surprise, of course, was that Tory MPs allowed her to carry on in the June 2017 after TMay into an unnecessary General Election with a majority and ended up without a majority. She’s really been on borrowed time since then.

Mike Smithson



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On healthcare Farage, Trump’s biggest British cheerleader, is vulnerable

April 22nd, 2019

Those opposed the Brexit party should change the subject to the NHS

Last November Donald Trump took a beating in the midterm elections when his opponents, the Democrats, were able to make his threats to undermine what public health system there is in the United States into an issue. This is an approach that will be used at WH2020 for once something has become an an entitlement then it is exceedingly difficult and politically dangerous to take it away.

In the UK, of course, the NHS has become something of a religion and none of the mainstream parties dare to do anything but support it. Is it any wonder that successive CON Health Secretaries have made sure that wear an NHS button badge. In the referendum campaign the official Leave organisation made extra funding for the NHS their pivotal selling point.

In the past Farage has talked of the NHS being replaced  by private health insurance a move that was not supported when he was in UKIP.  A few years ago he told UKIP supporters:

“I think we are going to have to move to an insurance-based system of healthcare. Frankly, I would feel more comfortable that my money would return value if I was able to do that through the marketplace of an insurance company, than just us trustingly giving £100bn a year to central government and expecting them to organise the healthcare service from cradle to grave for us.”

If I was advising Mrs May at this difficult time I would say launch a speech defending the NHS against the Farage  threat. This would get big headlines and take the subject away from brexit.

Farage has never made any secret of his views on the NHS and in this he is treading along very tricky ground in the UK because of the very strong public support that there is there and this covers backers of all parties.

Mike Smithson


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Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term CON leadership favourite

April 22nd, 2019


Chart betdata.io

How the betting moved ahead of the 2016 race

We all know the truism from Conservative leadership contests that the person who most likely seems to be the successor never gets it. Michael Heseltine, Michael Portillo and David Davis would no doubt attest to the difficulty of being the long-term favourite

I love looking at historical betting charts showing how punters were observing and risking their money on a big political outcome in the past where we have the betting data.

The chart is from 2016 race which was triggered after David Cameron announced his resignation on the morning after the Brexit referendum. Within hours of that announcement the money rushed onto to Boris Johnson in the successor market and at one stage he touched 54.5% on the Betfair Exchange. Clearly there were many who thought he was a certainty. In the end, of course, he didn’t run.

I set this out because once again with talk of a possible leadership contest being fairly imminent Johnson is heading the betting though not on anything like the scale that he was three summers ago.

I just wonder whether he is actually going to achieve his objective – whether he has made too many enemies on the way.  Currently this is a very delicate political situation for the Conservatives and the mood can change rapidly. There’s also the small matter of his relative lack of support amongst Tory MPs although one would assume that the hardline ERG group would give him their support.

This might be the moment for someone who’s currently not being seriously considered as a contender . There’s a little bit of a movement for James Cleverly as well as the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. There’s also said to be Esther McVey waiting in the wings. I have bets a very long odds on all three.

The big question is when is this going to take place and judging by reports it is hard to see how Mrs May can survive much longer although she is an incredibly determined woman.

There is a move to change the rule that gives her 12 months immunity following the December 2018 confidence vote which she won. There’s a strong argument for saying that these were the rules and those who forced the confidence motion at that time must have known of them.  The Tories could be moving on to dangerous ground if they  change things just because that would suit the politics of the moment.

Mike Smithson


 



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Is it Bye-bye to by-elections?

April 21st, 2019

Sunil looks at the trend and the reasons why

This is a two-part series bringing to your attention the decline of the humble Westminster by-election over the last 100 years. In Part 1, I will discuss how the reasons for triggering by-elections have changed since 1918. In Part 2, I will discuss in more detail the phenomenon (or lack) of MPs resigning and re-contesting their seats over principle or when they change party allegiance.

Since the 1918 election, when universal suffrage was first introduced, just over 100 years ago, there have been a grand total of 1,018 Westminster by-elections (not including the most recent contest in Newport West), or an average of 10.18 by-elections per calendar year from 1919 to 2018 inclusive, according to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!). Of course this makes the Newport West by-election held on 4th April this year the 1,019th. There was actually a 1020th by-election, for Dublin University way back in 1919, but as that was on the territory of the current Irish Republic, I have excluded it. Incidentally, that by-election was the very last Westminster election that took place in “Southern Ireland”.

As you can see in the graph  showing the annual trend between 1919 and 2018, by-elections were very much more common before c.1959.

The following table shows the various causes of by-elections and how numerous they were over the last hundred years. Although one could say this is a morbid subject to touch on, the following table clearly shows that less than half of all these by-elections involved the death of the incumbent, including those murdered. Four of the murders were perpetrated by the IRA, and the fifth victim was Jo Cox, assassinated by a far right extremist. In times gone by, elevations to the peerage were far more common, including those involving succession to a family title. Also, so-called Ministerial by-elections took place until abolished in 1926, whereupon MPs had to resign and re-contest when they became Ministers or other “Offices of Profit under the Crown”. And during the time of Empire, MPs often resigned when given postings as Governors of various exotic lands, among other non-political appointments.

 

Reason for by-election No. of by-elections 1919-2018
Death 502
Murdered 5
Peerage 159
Resignation 279
Void/Disqualified 10
Ministerial (1919-1926) 20
Seeking re-election after resignation 25
Scandal/Expelled 18

 

The distribution of the various reasons changed markedly in recent decades compared to the earlier decades during previous 100 years. For simplicity’s sake, I’m counting decades from 1919-1928, 1929-1938 and so on. Elevations to the Peerage, resignations (for various reasons), and death amongst serving MPs seemed to be far more common up until 1959, plus you had those so-called “Ministerial by-elections” (abolished in 1926). For example, the peak year for by-elections was 1940, with a total of 39, followed closely by 1921 with 37.

If we go by “blocks” of 20 years, during the 20 years from 1919 to 1938, there was an average of 17.7 by-elections per year, from 1939 to 1958 there was an average of 16.1, but the rate halved from 1959 to 1978 when there was an average of only 8.9 per year. And from 1979 to 1998, the rate fell further to only 5.0 by-elections per year, despite a spike in 1986 due to the Northern Irish resignations (more on that in Part 2). And within the last twenty years, 1999 to 2018, the rate fell even further to only 3.3 per year. In fact in each of 2017 and 2018, there were only two by-elections! Including Jo Cox, only 28 MPs died between 1999 and 2018, compared with 159 between 1919 and 1938. In fact, more MPs resigned than died during 1999-2018, including a number who had to leave office after some scandal or other. Mention must also be made of uncontested by-elections: there were 122 of these in the time frame we’re discussing, but the last of these was in Armagh (a UUP hold) in 1954.

Rather more fun facts include 1998 being the only year in UK electoral history without either any Westminster by-elections or a General Election, and the General Election years of 1992 and 2010 being the only others without any by-elections. The longest “gap” between two by-elections was the 567 days between 20th November 1997 and 10th June 1999. So it would appear that nowadays MPs lead more healthy lives (only 10 incumbent MPs have died since 2009) , or they leave parliament while still relatively young. Or, in the case of Change UK, they are keeping their powder dry! That’s 11 by-elections that might have been but never were – oh , well! Anyway, more on that in Part 2….

 

Sunil Prasannan



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ChangeUK is in danger of running out of steam and it has only itself to blame

April 21st, 2019

Having to face two big elections in a very short period of time looks as though it has taken its toll on TIG following what appear to have been a number of strategic mistakes.

The following comment by IanB2 on the PB thread last night, is a good analysis and is worthy of a full thread on its own.

“..Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance.,,They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that “they didn’t leave their party, it left them”, which obviously doesn’t compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of recruits. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn’t really work and their very poor logo wasn’t accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don’t really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don’t yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka’s political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn’t clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn’t appear to include very much ‘change’.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of ‘breaking the mould’ – and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.”

To my mind the things that the new grouping got most wrong was its approach to the discussions with the Liberal Democrats. They seemed to start from the point that they were in a much more powerful position then they actually were.

Mike Smithson


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With the first LE2018 postal votes being cast the signs are not good for the Tories

April 20th, 2019

The first of next month’s two electoral challenges for the Tories

While everybody seems to be getting excited about the May 23rd Euro elections there has been little focus on the big hurdle that the Tories have to surmount three weeks before that. These are the local elections in England which cover almost all of the country excluding London and just one or two counties.

Each year during a four years cycle a different set of local elections takes place and it is a particular challenge for the Tories at this difficult time that the group of council elections up on May 2nd are the ones where the party traditionally does very well.  Indeed back in 2015, when, most  were last fought, the Tories won more than 4000 which was in excess of half the overall number of contests.

Four years ago, of course, was on the day of GE2015  when the Tories did far better than had been predicted and secured a Commons majority.  This success was seen in the locals as well so it was always going to be the case even without the Brexit turmoil that May 2nd 2019 was going to be hard because there are so many seats to defend.

In his annual media presentation on the coming local elections the week before last the Tory elections analyst, Lord Hayward, observed that the one thing that could help his party between then and the May 2nd election day was the Brexit deal being approved. For there’s little doubt that the events of the past months have made life on the doorstep for Tory campaigners quite challenging and there’ll be a sense of relief once Brexit is settled. Alas that is not going to happen.

Reports from the ground suggest that the Tory vote is weak. It is not that there will be much switching to other parties but a concern that traditional CON voters simply won’t turnout. The thing about local elections is that turnout is everything. The national average is in the mid 30s which puts a premium on local parties ability to get their vote out.

This was a PB comment yesterday from ex-LAB MP, Nick Palmer on his experience:

Interesting 3 hours on the doorstep this afternoon (and no, people don’t mind being canvassed at Easter) in deepest Surrey. I think the Lib Dems are going to do well – I’m used to their voters showing up as don’t knows till the last minute, but there’s some definite enthusiasm out there. Labour’s core vote seems solid but not especially enthusiastic – it’s mostly about fighting the Tories. The Tory vote is crumbling at the edges – unusual number of former Tory voters going out of their way to say they wouldn’t ever vote Labour but definitely not Tory any more either – even met some Brexiteers voting LibDem ias an anti-big party protest. But the Tories too have a core vote which is loyal – I don’t expect a real metldown.”

All of this fits with the reports I have been getting and it is possible that the number of Tory losses could be in the hundreds which will reinforce the negative narrative for the party in the lead up to May 23rd.

Normally by this stage before the May locals we have had projections on likely party gain and losses based on what’s been happening in local by-elections. In the past these have set expectations but I don’t think we will be seeing numbers this year.

My guess is that the Lib Dems will do better than at any set of local elections since going into coalition with the Tories in May 2010. They should make a significant increase in their councillor numbers and that will be the backcloth for Vince Cable to announce his resignation as leader thus triggering off a leadership contest.

Mike Smithson




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Brexit is Ulsterising British politics

April 20th, 2019

One issue has become so important as to define the entire system

Most people would regard the Good Friday Agreement as a Very Good Thing. Certainly, it was so at the time and 21 years later, that broadly remains so. Despite the continuing background presence of dissident political violence – sadly this week coming into the foreground – the Agreement brought peace and an agreed political structure to the province.

As with much else in Irish politics, the GFA has generated a good deal of myth-making, to the extent that the Agreement is now more conceptual than written; more founded on belief than law. We know that because, for example, the debates over the UK-RoI land border never reference the actual clauses a hard border is claimed to break. The breach is not so much in the text as in what the text represents.

In truth, the Northern Ireland structures and processes that came out of the GFA have never worked particularly well, needed to be re-written and are currently in abeyance: inconvenient facts ignored by those who want to believe in its abiding Goodness, for want of anything better. Turning a blind eye is an essential skill in N Irish politics, and sometimes one that brings a public benefit too.

However, at the heart of those processes is an insuperable barrier to long-term normalisation: the Assembly is built on the concepts of unionist and nationalist communities. Given that the political parties are themselves built on unionist and nationalist programmes, that might seem sensible but the effect is to ensure that that division acquires a reinforcing dynamic and makes any long-term normalisation even more difficult. The GFA does not seek to create one nation; it seeks to manage the relations between two.

As such, a voter more concerned about school standards, economic growth, provision of libraries and parks, or public freedoms has to filter what would usually be social and economic left/right debates through the unnatural prism of unionism/nationalism. If you want to vote Conservative, you might be able to but it won’t get you anywhere; if you want to vote Labour or Lib Dem, you can’t do that at all: you have to vote for ‘sister parties’, which in essence means having to sign up to, respectively, a nationalist or overtly non-aligned agenda. Note that the Alliance Party, while nominally eschewing Northern Ireland’s divisions, still ends up being bound and defined by them.

One unfortunate aspect of Brexit (of many) is an Ulsterising of Britain’s politics at large, in two ways.

The first, and more immediately obvious, is the prominence of the RoI-NI border within the arguments over the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the UK’s future relationship with the EU, which has brought the issues in and around Northern Ireland back to the top of the agenda for both government and parliament. This is, of course, compounded by the Con-DUP Confidence and Supply deal and the mathematics within the Commons. British politics is dominated by Brexit (albeit that both are on a necessary, if hardly well-earned, holiday at the moment), and Ireland is central to Brexit.

There is another way in which Britain’s politics is Ulsterising though: public political identity is more attuned to Brexit than to the traditional political parties, and those parties – and the voters backing them – are realigning to reflect that fact.

The Conservative Party is transforming into the Leave Party. That it’s failed to deliver any form of Leave (other than an unratified Agreement no-one much likes and many hate) is at the core of the Tories’ collapse in support over the last 4-6 weeks and what are likely to be May election results that come in somewhere between very poor and disastrous. FPTP will help protect the Tories to some degree in Westminster elections but not in the Euros. The probability is that Theresa May will step down or be forced out this summer and will be replaced by a hard Leaver. It’s possible that such a candidate won’t always have been a hard Leaver but if not, ERG MPs and party members will demand assurances in blood of their conversion to the cause.

As an aside, I’d think about backing the Brexit Party candidate to win any Peterborough by-election at anything over 3/1, given the likely timing of that election, the likely result of the EP elections, and that public realignment.

By contrast, Labour is transforming into a Remain party. Jeremy Corbyn might not be very happy about that but it’s happening all the same and Conference will be difficult for him on this point unless he’s either accepted the need to go along with members or unless he’s greatly enhanced his authority in the interim.

Corbyn, unlike May and her successor, does at least have the advantage that the challenger Remain-Revoke parties are not very good at politics. TIG, or Change, or whatever have completely missed the open goal in making the public case, while rebel Labour and Tory MPs led the parliamentary battle. The Lib Dems are even further out of the game – when did anyone last hear from any of them on or in the media? By contrast, Nigel Farage has once again captured the attention and support of his target audience.

However, Corbyn won’t be around for ever, even if he wins an election and becomes PM. He’s 70 next month and one of the last relics of first-generation Bennism and the Euroscepticism that came with it. His successor will be (and will have to be) far more openly pro-EU.

Sometimes slowly, sometimes much more rapidly, the party system has realigned from class and social/economic policy preferences to Brexit identity. For those primarily interested in domestic policy, this presents the same problems facing the public in Ulster: domestic policies come as part-and-parcel of the overall package but very much secondary. This is going to leave a lot of voters homeless and struggling to find someone to support, whether they be traditional floating voters or those who were previously aligned but have seen their former party unwelcomingly transformed.

For now though, politics is Brexit, and Brexit is Ireland, and politics is Ulsterised.

David Herdson



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On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and Nick Timothy)

April 19th, 2019

On the betting markets it was a 92% chance that the Tories would win a majority. It got even tighter than that – on the weekend after Tory performance in that year’s local elections the betting chance of the CON majority hit 97%.

Then there was:

The launch of the Tory manifesto (written by Mr. Timothy and not even approved by the cabinet) on May 18th 2017…

Mrs. May’s refusal to take part in a TV debate with Corbyn.

The Dimbleby QuestionTime Special when a nurse whose pay had stood still for eight years was told by the PM “There is no magic money tree”

The exit poll.

Mike Smithson