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Guess who? Looking for Jeremy Corbyn’s successor

February 8th, 2016

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Alastair Meeks on his 200/1 tip to be next Labour leader.

Pitt the Elder did not lack confidence, declaring to the Duke of Devonshire: “My Lord, I am sure I can save this country, and no one else can.”  Is there anyone who can save Labour?  It’s a good question and it’s not at all clear that there’s an answer.  The Labour party is being torn apart by a profound schism between the purist left membership and the much more centrist Parliamentary party.  Jeremy Corbyn retains the confidence of the membership and is seeking to move the power base of the party from the shadow Cabinet and Parliamentary party to the membership.  Talk of insurrection is in the air among dissident MPs, though no one has yet publicly suggested a viable mechanism for dethroning a leader elected by a landslide less than six months ago.

There are essentially three possible ways in which the Labour party leadership might be resolved.  First, Jeremy Corbyn may cement his hold on power (possibly after an unsuccessful challenge).  Secondly, his party opponents might successfully oust him.  Thirdly, he might be replaced by consent (possibly with some degree of coercion of some of the interested parties) by a unity candidate.

Both the first and the second possibilities would almost inevitably lead to further seismic upheaval within the Labour party.  The Parliamentary party is not going to become reconciled to Jeremy Corbyn and the membership are not going to accept a betrayal by the Parliamentary party.  Both of those options look utterly disastrous for Labour in the short to medium term.

This is recognised all round, so pressure will build for a suitable unity candidate.  Such a candidate would need to be someone who the grassroots respect as one of their own and who the Parliamentary party respect as being in touch with the political realities of persuading the electorate.  By definition, such a person would need to be a recognised public figure with a track record at the highest levels of the party.  They would need to be seen as a heavyweight and they would need to be willing to undertake the job.

The obvious starting point is to look at those current Labour MPs who have served in the Cabinet.  Labour only left office six years ago, so that should give a substantial pool, right?  Wrong.  By my count, there are only 12 current MPs who served as full Cabinet ministers in a Labour government: Margaret Beckett, Hilary Benn, Ben Bradshaw, Nick Brown, Andy Burnham, Liam Byrne, Yvette Cooper, Harriet Harman, Alan Johnson, Ed Miliband, Andrew Smith and Stephen Timms.

Stop and consider that for a minute.  Labour still has well over 200 MPs, many of fairly long standing.  But those who achieved the most in the last government have by and large deserted the field.  No wonder Labour is in so much trouble; it has suffered a serious brain drain.

So who among these contenders might be a suitable unity candidate?  Ben Bradshaw, Nick Brown, Andrew Smith and Stephen Timms, excellent though they all are, simply do not have the profile for this role.  Hilary Benn is completely unacceptable to the membership as a unity candidate.  Harriet Harman’s failure to oppose tax credit cuts probably makes her unacceptable too.  Liam Byrne forever ruled himself out with six words in a letter: “I’m afraid there is no money”.

Margaret Beckett would actually be an excellent choice of unity candidate on many grounds – she is a former deputy leader, has already been acting leader and nominated Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership last year.  If the aim was to remain in contention rather than to win, she could fulfil the same function that Michael Howard managed in 2005 for the Conservatives.  But I discount her on the ground of age – she would be 77 by the time of the 2020 election.  At the risk of sounding ageist, that is surely just too old for the role now.

That leaves four MPs with Cabinet level experience: Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper, Alan Johnson and Ed Miliband.  Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper stood against Jeremy Corbyn and lost crushingly.  While both are conceivable unity candidates, particularly Andy Burnham who has served in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow Cabinet, the fact of their crushing defeat probably rules them out.

So you can see why Alan Johnson’s name keeps coming up as a unity candidate whenever the Labour party lacks confidence in its leader.  But he keeps declining the opportunity no matter how hard he has been pressed to make a move.  He did not move against Gordon Brown and he did not move against Ed Miliband.  That’s not the track record of a man who is hungry for the role.  He’s probably also a bit too rightwing to satisfy the Labour party membership, who are going to be very suspicious of anyone who takes over from Jeremy Corbyn.

Which leaves Ed Miliband.  Well, why not?  He’s led the party so he knows what’s involved.  He managed to keep it united and was inclusive.  The membership respect him even if he is a little rightwing for their tastes.  The MPs know he understands electoral realities.  Alright, he lost the last election but given how things have gone since then Labour can’t afford to be too picky.  When he stood down, Labour were looking to find someone who could lead them back towards government.  Right now they need someone that’s going to hold them all together.  Ed Miliband has shown that he can do that job.  He’s probably their best choice to do it again now.

Would he even want the job again?  Probably not, but sometimes needs must.  I was allowed £2 by SkyBet at 200/1 to back him as next Labour leader.  That’s £2 I’ll probably never see again, but if Labour is to unite around a consensus candidate of stature, the options are very limited indeed.

Alastair Meeks




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In May we might find out if Corbyn is the liability for Labour the Tories hope he is

February 7th, 2016

The London Mayoral election might help determine if Corbyn is the toxic liability for the Labour Party the Tories hope he is and many in Labour fear he is

Looking at the above tweets it is clear that the Tory plan for winning the London Mayoral contest is to portray Sadiq Khan as Corbyn’s man in London. This makes sense given the dire personal polling Corbyn has, coupled with some of his more interesting policy positions and comments should be a negative for Khan.

Cameron then upped the ante as it were, by saying Londoners will become Corbyn ‘lab rats’ if Sadiq Khan becomes Mayor, that comment earned the Prime Minister the wrath of Khan, though it probably betrayed Khan’s concern that the attacks might have an impact.

The Tories have made several unpopular missteps since winning a majority last May, something an effective opposition would have exploited  just like they should be exploiting Cameron’s EU referendum difficulties. The YouGov EU referendum poll that made painful reading for Cameron, still had the Tories with a double digit lead. All of this could be lulling the Tories into a false sense of security about the next general election, where on current boundaries, a swing of 0.44% could deny the Tories a majority.

Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn might not be enough for the Tories to win a majority in 2020, the toxic Corbyn meme could well be this parliament’s idée fixe like the last parliament’s idée fixe was a guaranteed hung parliament in 2015.

If Khan wins with a bigger than anticipated majority in May, then we might conclude that the attacks on Corbyn have no impact, just like they didn’t in the Oldham West & Royton by election which Nigel Farage dubbed as a referendum on Jeremy Corbyn. Those who say Crispin Blunt in a room full of poppers or the corpse of Sir Edward Heath could lead the Tories to a majority in 2020 against a Corbyn led Labour Party might need to re-evaluate their beliefs.

If Goldsmith does win in May, then it may spur the Parliamentary Labour Party into action against Corbyn lest they go the same way as Khan at the 2020 general election.

TSE



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Rubio slips back on Betfair following what’s described as “robotic” NH debate performance

February 7th, 2016

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The Twitter verdicts of leading pundits

After his surprisingly close 3rd place in Iowa all the narrative in the GOP Race has been about the young Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

The polls since have been have been good and he was widely being tipped as the one who could stop Trump. That was before the final TV debate that ended a few hours ago in New Hampshire.

The Tweets above from leading commentators speak for themselves. It was alaways likely that Rubio would be the one who’d take the most flack and he flunked it.

So who will benefit? In New Hampshire that looks like be Trump and possibly Kasich who has been polling reasonably well in the state.

This ain’t over till it’s over.

Mike Smithson





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The other divide in EURef polling: the more positive it looks for BREXIT if actual words not used

February 6th, 2016

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The ballot format gives a significant boost for REMAIN

Since August PB has been featuring a regular table on the state of voting intentions for the referendum. For the sake of consistency the only polls that are included are those where the actual wording on the ballot, as above, is used.

Some polls have used different formats like Lord Ashcroft in December in his large sample online poll. He wrote:

“Rather than replicate the referendum question itself we asked people to place themselves on a scale between zero, meaning they would definitely vote for the UK to remain in the EU, to 100, meaning they would definitely vote to leave. Just under four in ten (38 per cent) put themselves between zero and 49, showing they were inclined to remain, and nearly half (47 per cent) gave themselves a score between 51 and 100; 14 per cent placed themselves at 50, meaning they were completely undecided.”

That suggested much stronger towards BREXIT than almost all of the polling using the actual words that will be used in the election.

Ipsos-MORI phone polls have been testing opinion on an EU referendum since 1977 and clearly wanted to continue with their original phrasing that so historical comparisons can be made. To deal with the fact that we now know the wording they are using a split sample with quite striking results as seen in the chart above.

So in each Ipsos-MORI EU referendum polling we have two completely different sets of numbers. The last two from the firm have had the actual REMAIN lead 7% greater than when their tracker format is used. In every case since the wording was finalised REMAIN does better when it is used

ORB have experienced the same difference.

All this leads me to conclude that the agreed referendum format gives REMAIN an advantage.

Mike Smithson





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Assessing Marco Rubio: A surge or just a bubble

February 6th, 2016

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David Herdson on why he’s yet to be convinced

Ted Cruz can feel a little hard done by. It was he, after all, who won the Iowa caucus, beating Donald Trump, the reports of the pollsters, and indeed everyone else. Normally, that would be enough to fire him into the media spotlight as the man with the momentum. Not this time. The ‘momentum’ badge has instead been awarded to Florida senator, Marco Rubio.

Although he finished only third in Iowa, he’s made good headway in the polls since the caucus result, leading Cruz for second place in the five New Hampshire surveys conducted at least in part since Tuesday, as well breaking back into the twenties in one national poll for the first time since November. The question is whether that’s a ‘push’ reaction away from two not very appealing leading candidates with voters alighting on Rubio as the nearest convenient alternative, or a ‘pull’ effect where voters are genuinely attracted to what he stands for.

My instinct is that it’s the former. If voters were keen on him for his own merits then he would have been polling much more strongly before now. In a sense, he got lucky by being in the right place at the right time: he was the leading alternative conservative candidate to Cruz when Trump went negative to good effect against the Texan. In another, simply being in that right place takes skill: a lot of other candidates spent a lot of money to far less effect.

That matters but it’s not decisive. What is clear is that the public are willing now to give him a hearing. Even if he did back into the spotlight, he now has the chance to make the most of it. By the same token, he will now likely be the focus of relentless attacks from his fellow candidates well beyond what he’s experienced so far.

Indeed, that’s already happening. Bush, Kasich and Christie, all of whom need good results in the granite state to kick-start their campaigns, are all competing with him (as well as each other) for the mainstream vote – not that Rubio is particularly mainstream but he’s more so than Cruz or Trump are and if the establishment candidates can’t find traction their support has to go somewhere. Likewise, Cruz is competing with him for the conservative vote and providing he can avoid getting too drawn into a row with Carson over his campaign’s Iowa tactics, should also be gunning for Rubio, probably over immigration. They have their best opportunity tonight, in the last debate before the primary.

How well will he stand up? Former candidate, now Rubio-backer and Senate colleague Rick Santorum didn’t exactly help when asked to state Rubio’s top Senate accomplishments couldn’t name any.

    This is an extremely difficult race to call. Rubio has undoubtedly moved forward since Monday but is that poll rise a still-ongoing trend, a one-off step change or a bubble ready to burst?

He still trails Trump in the NH polls and if the Donald does win on Tuesday then Rubio’s record of a third and a second won’t look too hot against Cruz and Trump with a state a piece, another likely Trump win (in that scenario) in South Carolina and a Cruz-friendly Super Tuesday; Nevada would then be Rubio’s last best hope. On the other hand, if he wins in New Hampshire then he really does take the momentum with him, probably all the way to the White House. What’s clear about 2016 is that no potential president has broad popular appeal; the least worst will win. Rubio has the potential to be everyone’s second favourite, picking up transfers as Christie, Kasich, Bush, Fiorina and Carson drop out. He also has the potential to be everyone’s second favourite and so miss out in New Hampshire as people vote for their first preference.

All of which is to say that whoever takes New Hampshire for the GOP is strongly odds-on to take the nomination with it. I just wish I could see who is going to take New Hampshire.

David Herdson



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The left could be preparing for Corbyn to stand down & be replaced by McDonnell

February 5th, 2016

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Might be a good bet

Just had a small bet at 18/1 on Betfair on the shadow chancellor, John. McDonnell, being Corbyn’s successor.

This follows speculation this afternoon started by Ken Livingston that McDonnell might be the one to take over when Corbyn goes.

What’s odd is that the former London Mayor should be talking in these terms at all barely five months after Corbyn was elected.

There have been suggestions that Corbyn has found aspects of the job, particularly what could be seen as intrusions into his family life, difficult to cope with.

It’s known that Ken is very close to Corbyn and I wonder whether there’s something behind this being raised now. Certainly the shadow chancellor is regarded as very much a tougher egg who wouldn’t shy away from some of the difficult confrontations that leadership sometimes entails.

One thing’s for sure – now the left is in control of the party they are not going to give you up power easily.

Alistair Meeks suggested betting on McDonnell here in October when he was 50/1.

Mike Smithson





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CON loses 2 of the 3 local by-elections it was defending overnight

February 5th, 2016

Bottisham (Con defence) on East Cambridgeshire
Result: Conservative 421 (44% -8%), Liberal Democrat 403 (42% +10%), Labour 99 (10% -6%), UKIP 43 (4%, no candidate in 2015)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 18 (2%) on a swing of 9% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Measham South (Lab defence) on North West Leicestershire
Result: Labour 257 (43% -12%), Conservative 202 (34% -11%), UKIP 141 (24%, no candidate in 2015)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 55 (9%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Conservative

Hexham West (Con defence) on Northumberland
Result: Non Party Independent 501 (37%, no candidate in 2013), Conservative 454 (33% -15%), Labour 200 (15% unchanged), Independent 125 (9%, no candidate in 2013), Green Party 89 (7%, no candidate in 2013)
Non Party Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majoruty of 47 (4%) on a notional swing of 26% from Conservative to Non Party Independent

Oswestry South (Con defence) on Shropshire
Result: Green Party 518 (48% +16%), Conservative 367 (34% -12%), Labour 95 (9%, no candidate in 2015), Liberal Democrat 91 (8% +2%)
Green GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 151 (14%) on a swing of 14% from Conservative to Green



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YouGov has LEAVE lead up to 9% in survey taken immediately after this week’s key referendum talks

February 5th, 2016

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On Betfair REMAIN drops a notch to a 66.7% chance

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So far in the referendum campaign members of the YouGov have been tending to be more in favour of BREXIT than those most other online firms and certainly there’s a massive gap between YouGov and the EURef phone polls.

However the events of this week and the coverage they’ve been getting have not been good for Cameron’s position on the vote that is reported to be being planned for June 23rd.

The YouGov polling took place in the immediate aftermath and later surveys will indicate whether the impact has been sustained.

The betting reaction has been relatively muted as seen in the latest Betfair data.

I’ve yet to place a referendum bet.

Mike Smithson