A couple of people have raised with time the question of when they can expect to pick up their winnings on Mitt Romney for the Republican party nomination.

The battle is just about all over with Mitt expected to cross the finishing line with the 1144 delegates in the next two to three weeks.

Unfortunately for punters the bookies are likely to do what they have done in the past and wait until the party convention has met. With the GOP that won’t happen until the end of August.

Betfair’s rules are quite explicit – “This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2012 Republican National Convention.”

So if you are waiting to pick up winnings then you are going to have to be patient.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Would Phillip Hammond be best placed to become leader&PM?

These have been a bloody few weeks for David Cameron. One problem seems to have piled on another and his personal poll ratings and those of his party have plummeted.

What if the narrative continues and there seem few signs of improvement?

What if Labour’s double digit poll leads continue and the idea takes hold that the dream of a Tory majority simply isn’t going to happen and that the most likely outcome is a return of Labour?

What if we reach a point where the Conservatives do what they’ve done in the past and ditch a leader perceived to be a loser?

It is a sign of the times that Ladbrokes is offering what to me is a skinny 7/1 that Dave will be out before the year end.

If Dave did have to step down before the general election then my choice for next Tory leader and PM would be the defence secretary, Phillip Hammond. Unlike most of those close to the PM Hammond is in his mid-50s, went to a state school, and had a successful career outside politics before becoming an MP.

It would be hard for Nadine Dorries to pin the label “posh” on him.

Of the Tory front bench team he is one of the few that gives an air of confidence and sure-footedness. In the past few days he’s had a very good week on defence issues and is an effective communicator.

Of the alternatives Boris is not an MP and went to Eton; Osborne, also public school and the Bullington club, has been too associated with Cameron and David Davis is not a minister.

I was going to end suggesting that you have a Hammond bet. Ladbrokes, amazingly now make him the 10/1 third favourite for the leadership. As I write there’s nothing available on Betfair though PaddyPower have a tempting 33/1 against him being next PM. If, unlike me, you can make a decent size bet with the Irish bookie then it’s worth a punt.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

What a day for political news

This has been one of those days. After last night’s YouGov poll with its record lead we then had the charges in the News International case only to be followed an hour or so later by one of the four main telephone polls – Ipsos-MORI.

Then there was the election to the Conservatives 1922 committee in which the old guard appears to have seen off the young usurpers. On top of that EdM has been making changes to his shadow line-up.

Have a good night’s conversation.

@MikeSmithsonOGH