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Need the Tories be so gloomy about the Westmister seat distribution?

A number of Tory supporters are seeking to raise their General Election hopes by suggesting that the Westminster seat distribution that seems so skewed to Labour might not be as bad for them as it appear. There’s been a particular focus that this factor could be partially off-set by the anti-Tory tactical voting of 1997 and 2001 “unwinding”. Could this happen and what would be the effect?

A major study after the 1997 election put the number of Conservative seats that were lost as a result of tactical voting by Lib Dems switching to Labour at 25-35. Almost all of these seats were retained in 2001 and the evidence is that there was an average tactical dimension amongst Lib Dem supporters amounting to about 3% of all those who voted.

The question that political gamblers are interested in is what happens if at least part of this tactical element “unwinds” at the next Election. What if the Lib Dems who were ready to vote Labour to keep the Tories out decide that in the post-Iraq environment that they will return to their party fold. What happens if showing disapproval for the war becomes more important in many of their eyes than switching to Labour to maximise the anti-Conservative vote.

In this case all the General Election projections based soley on a “Universal National Swing” might be wrong. Maybe the Tories are in a better state than seat projections based on the latest polls are showing. Maybe the moves in the betting markets to the Tories have been right. Maybe Michael Howard could after all be the Prime Minister after Tony Blair/Gordon Brown?

There were two types of tactical voting at the last two General Elections: –

Labour supporters switching to Lib Dem. Our view that these tactical votes will largely stay intact. In campaigning terms the Lib Dems are brilliant at targeting. Where there are sitting Lib Dem MPs Labour supporters are going to take little convincing that switching is the best way of opposing the Tories. It might be that if the General Election looks like a close race then more Labour voters will move over. The Lib Dems will be a natural home for the Labour people opposed to the war.

Lib Dems switching to Labour. The Lib Dem supporters who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 are a different matter and clearly a proportion will return to the Lib Dems given the decline in popularity of Tony Blair’s government.

To try to assess the electoral affect Anthony Wells has amended his General Election predictor programme to factor in this element. But he does not discriminate between Lib-Lab and Lab-Lib tactical switches. We think that he should and our estimate is that the Conservatives will be 10-15 seats better off at Labour’s expense.

This does make some difference to General Election seat predictions but, it should be emphasised, the overall seat structure is still very much tilted in Labour’s favour. Taking the May Populus poll findings this is how the Westminster seats split on a uniform swing and taking into account some tactical voting unwinding in Labour seats wons with Lib Dem support.

Populus Poll: CON 36%, LAB 32%, LIB 22%
Based on Uniform National Swing these vote shares convert to this new House of Commons
CON 245 seats; LAB 305 seats; LIB 65 seats
Factoring in a 14 seat Labour loss due to tactical voting this becomes
CON 259 seats; LAB 291 seats; LIB 65 seats

Thus Labour are still 32 seats ahead even though they are 4% behind in the popular vote. Thus the unwinding affect is going to help Michal Howard but its affect can be over-stated. It might make the overall result less “unfair” than it might otherwise have been.

In future seat projections on Politicalbetting.com we will factor in this element with Labour seats only.

Our big call on Steve Norris is three-quarters of the way there

Mayor of London – person or party. It’s dead easy to call a 1/8 favourite – it’s much harder to call at odds of 11 or more which is what we’ve been doing for months. We said back Norris when he was 21% behind in the polls and prices were in double digits. Now YouGov’s latest London poll shows that Livingstone’s lead has collapsed to a mere 5% amongst those “certain to vote”. So it’s going to be down to second preferences where Ken cannot rely on Frank Dobson voters as he did four years ago. Most Lib Dem 2nd preferences then went to Norris. What will the next poll show and how will the prices move? In a normal election market with a 5% gap that’s narrowing sharply you would expect prices of 1.5 for the leader and 2.5 for the challenger. BACK Norris while you can still get good value

White House Race 2004. The tightness of the race is not being reflected in the UK prices. As we have said this is becoming a referendum on Bush whose popularity goes up and down in line with the level of bad news from Iraq. But what will be the cumulative affect of all this? Kerry really does have a good chance and at 2.1 or more is really good value. This will surely move downwards. BACK KERRY.

Party winning most seats at UK General Election. Wait until after the Euro and Local Elections on June 10 when the Labour prices will be better. Provided the post-June 10 opinion polls are showing Tories leads of 6% or less then backing Labour should be a good value bet. The Tory success in the 1999 Euro Elections had no impact on subsequent opinion polls or the 2001 General Election.

Spread Betting on Commons seats. The Spread Betting bookmakers make their money in the spead – the difference between the BUY price if you want to back a party and the SELL price if you think it’s going to be lower. If the spreads are about right then there is very little value. That’s our view of the current markets. DON’T BET.

Labour Leader at General Election. Gordon Brown has been moving back up the market but we are not convinced that Tony Blair will be going so DON’T BET in the Betfair and William Hill market. If you think that Blair will not be there, as last week, William Hill’s price is much better. A less risky bet is laying Blair/Kennedy in the Party Leaders market. With this you win if either or both leaders go. It’s gone quiet on the Kennedy front but this could change post-June 10 if the Euro results are not as good as hoped for. The Lib Dems succeed through brilliantly targeting – something that’s not possible with the massive Euro regions.

UK Euro Constitution Referendum. Wait until we know the date and what the deal contains. The odds are not very encouraging on either side. DON’T BET.

NOTE: When we make a call we are stating that we believe that the chances of something happening are better than the odds that are available. All prices quoted are as at time of posting. We endeavour to ensure that material is accurate when posted. However Politicalbetting.com can accept no respnsiblity for the information on the site or opinions expressed. Users make bets entirely at their own risk.

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With all the attention on Tony Blair there has been very little recently on Charles Kennedy’s position as leader of the Lib Dems. The party has been totally focussed on the June 10 European and elections and the general view is that they are going to do well. But are they? The locals should be good but will the Euro vote prove to be the disappointment that it was five years ago?

A problem is that the Lib Dems always find it hard to meet expectations in the Euro Elections. In June 1999 the party was going through a good period and the ICM poll just before the Euro vote had them at 19%. Yet in the Euro Elections the party polled just 12.1%. Even with a PR voting system they picked up just 10 MEPs – far below what many had predicted.

Where would Charles Kennedy stand if his party’s share of the Euro vote is substantially below the current 20-22% opinion poll ratings? Could this be the pressure point on his leadership? Will the doubts that emerged a couple of months ago re-surface?

Kennedy’s problem is that in the aftermath of the Iraq war there are huge expectations on him and the Lib Dems. June 10 has to be a resounding success and if it isn’t it will provide vital ammunition for those Lib Dems who believe the party would do better if he stoody aside.

This time the overall number of UK MEPs is being reduced because of the enlargement of the European Union and all the parties will be doing well if they can hold onto what they already have. But as Andrew Grice writes in the Indpendent today the Lib Dems are expected to increase their contingent of MEPs by 2 or 3. So the expectations are very high. Can Kennedy deliver?

For Lib Dem campaigners the huge regional constituencies for the European Parliament are a nightmare. In Westminster and local elections the party is brilliant at focusing resources on target seats that it believes that it can win. In the other seats there are Lib Dem candidates but they are fighting what is known in the party as “paper campaigns”. They are there almost in name only.

But how can you target a whole region? This is very difficult. In addition the Lib Dem campaigin is hampered by the party’s positive approach to the EU that does not always resonate with the public mood. The decision to hold the 2004 local elections on the same day as the Euro vote should be very helpful because many more voters will be brought to the polls by local council campaigns.

The only betting market on the Lib Dem leadership is the “Party Leaders” on a betting exchange.

At the end of a difficult period for Tony Blair it’s tempting to bet on the Tories to win most seats at the General Election. The prices look good value and Labour is expected to take a real drubbing in the “Super Thursday” local, London and Euro Elections on June 10.

The mood is being reinforced by the way Michael Howard has been able to pursue the Government on Iraq. As Robin Cook writes in the Independent today “Howard may not be able to airbrush out of the record Tory support for invading Iraq in the first place, but he is determined to make as much capital as he can out of the monumental blunders of the subsequent occupation.”

The main betting activity in recent days has been on the Conservatives to win most seats at the General Election. On the betting exchanges, the most sensitive market, the price has now dropped to 3.6 – a move that was predicted in our Monday Call on April 19 when the price was at 4.3. Such a drop in such a short period is significant and reflects a real change of sentiment on the markets. But there are two dangers.

Firstly Labour could recover – perhaps prompted by a new leader. The rumour since John Prescott’s famous “Admiralty Arch” dinner last November is that Blair will stand down in July after 10 years as Labour leader – a scenario that punters have been betting on. This would allow a leadership process finishing off with Gordon Brown taking over at the Labour conference in the autumn. The recent YouGov poll had Labour and the Tories level pegging on 39% each if such a change happened.

Secondly the Westminster seat distribution makes it difficult for the Tories. Even to get equal with Labour on seats Howard needs to be 6-7% ahead. For a majority at the General Election the Conservatives need a lead of 10%.

Although the polls have been moving some way against Labour in the last few weeks we are nowhere near the area where the prospect of Labour not winning on seats becomes a possibility. Theoretically Labour can maintain an overall majority in the House of Commons on 32% of the vote.

But this calculation is based on the concept of the Uniform National Swing. The Conservatives might win more seats because of differential swings in different areas. There is also the affect of tactical voting which gave Labour many more seats than the general swing in both 1997 and 2001. What happens if this unwinds? We intend to look at in more detail in the next few days though its impact is not as great as some Tory supporters might hope.

As a strategy we still suggest waiting until after the June 10 local and Euro elections because we can see the Conservative price fall even further and the Labour one to rise. The key thing post-June 10 will be the opinion polls. Unless these start to show Conservative leads in excess of 6% then backing Labour will be a value bet.

There is a danger that people might over-react to the Euro and Local elections. Following William Hague’s successful Euro Campaign in 1999 in which the Conservatives came out on top the opinion polls hardly changed. These are the ICM Labour-Conservative leads from that period -

May 1999 – Lab lead 23%
June 1999 – Labour lead 17%
June 1999 – Euro Election – Tory lead 7.6%
July 1999 – Labour lead 17%
August 1999 – Labour lead 18%

UPDATE – WHITE HOUSE 2004. Six US polls this week have Kerry and Bush within one point of each other. The Iowa market has the two almost at the same level. The race has never been as close and it’s Kerry who is moving forward.

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