politicalbetting.com

It’s not been picked up by the pundits or the betting markets but ALL four of the main opinion polls have shown Tory gains in August.

YouGov (Aug 27)
34%(+1) L34%(nc!) LD21% (-2%)
ICM (Aug15)
C33%(+3) L36%(+1) LD22%(-3)
MORI (Aug 16)
C32%(+1) L36%(+4) LD21%(-3)
Populus (Aug 1)
C32%(+3) L32%(-1) LD24% (nc)

With the UKIP effect continuing to unwind there is the potenial for further improvements but all this is being ignored by the betting markets.

Latest spread-betting prices.

LAB 343-351 (+1): CON 210
-218 (-2): LIBD 66-70 (NC)

Remember it was the UKIP surge ahead of the June 10 Euro election that caused Michael Howard to falter. Take this away & the Tories might be heading towards their pre-spring position of 38- 40% in the only anonymous interviewer-free poll that we have at the moment, YouGov.

Why anonymous interviewer-free polls? Because these come closest to replicating a secret ballot and have a proven accuracy measuring Tory support – just look at the consistent performance of
the computer-generated phone polls of Rasmussen last time and YouGov’s internet operation.

When tested in real elections non-anonymous interviewer-based polls almost always understate the Tories and overstate Labour. This happened at the last 3 General Elections and in the June 10 Euro elections.

The conventional pollsters say their advanced techniques are now dealing with this better. But two of them in the figures above have boosted the Labour totals to compensate for those reluctant to tell interviewers their allegiance. We understand the mathematics but question the basis on which this is being done. Only time will tell whether they are right.

A LAB BUY spread bet at 351 seats is as safe as one on Paula Racliffe being re-elected BBC Sports Personality of the Year.

The betting exchange, Betfair, have now opened a market on the Hartlepool by-election. So far there are very few backers and layers but Labour is just favourite over the LDs. Labour are 1/2 while the LD current price is 2/3. This could change quickly.

If I was sitting in front of my computer rather than composing this on my smartphone sitting on a French beach I would be trying to lay Labour at 1/2. There are only 2 parties in it and they are closer than the price suggests.

Although UKIP came 2nd to Labour there in the Euro Elections the LDs came a strong 2nd in the local council poll held at exactly the same time with the same voters.

If Kilroy-Silk had been candidate UKIP might have had a chance. As it stands the UKIP bubble looks as though will burst in Hartlepool giving some relief to Michael Howard.

The convenional bookmaker, William Hill told us 10 days ago that thiey won’t be opening a market on the “Monkey-town” by-election unti the date is fixed and all the candidates are known. This is a pity because there’s a lot of interest.

Today’s YouGov poll has CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LD 21%(-2), Oth 11%(nc).

UKIP is at 6% compared with 4% with MORI and 1% with ICM.

They cannot all be right but a sixfold difference must be a record.
.

MORI’s new poll has: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 21%. Labour are up 4%. the Tories are up 1%, as UKIP fall one point to 4.

At this stage before the last election MORI was showing a 22% Labour lead with the LDs on 15%. Labour were on 51%.

YouGov should be out tomorrow and UKIP’s rating will be interesting.!

After 94 comments can the thread be continued here?

Many thanks.

Mike Smithson