politicalbetting.com

The methodology divide deepens

Three new surveys this morning from conventional interview-based pollster show big leads for Labour and contrast sharply with the interviewer-free YouGov poll on Friday that had the party just 1% ahead.

ICM in the Sunday Telegraph, which uses telephone interviews, have the Labour margin down by 2% on last week’s survey by the same pollster in the Guardian. The shares are – CON 32(+1): LAB 37(-1): LD 21(nc). Interestingly both YouGov and ICM are recording the same trend.

The MORI poll in the Observer is the first to be published from the firm since November and the comparison is based on that survey. The figures – CON 32(+1): LAB 38(+3): LD 22%(-1). The pollsters uses conventional face-to-face interviews.

Communicate Research for the Independent on Sunday has, with comparisons on their last survey six weeks ago, LAB 40 (+1): CON 32 (-2) LD 20 (+1). This contrasts sharply with ICM which has seen a 4% drop in the Labour lead during the same period.

The Lib Dem share remains fairly constant at 20-22% with all the pollsters. CR’s lower figure is probably due to the fact that, uniquely, it does not prompt with the party options.

The huge gap between the conventional firms and the internet-based YouGov is underlined by two surveys on how people would vote in the Euro Constitution referendum – the formal question for which was announced during the week. ICM record 39%: YES 41% NO. Compare that with yesterday’s YouGov figure which has 24% YES: 45% NO.

There was a difference in the questions that were put. YouGov – where respondents read from a computer screen – had “If a referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote Yes or No in response to the question ‘Should the UK approve the treaty establishing a constitution for the European Union?’ The ICM telephone interviewers asked: “Should the United Kingdom approve the treaty establishing a constitution for the European Union?

The internet pollsters would argue that when you vote you do it in private at a time that you choose by reading a question and marking a ballot paper without the potentially distorting intervention of another human being.

The telephone pollsters argue strongly that internet survey samples are skewed because they are restricted to those who have access and are members of the pollster’s panel. Maybe this will be the biggest question to be resolved on May 5th.

Latest IG Index spread prices: LAB 355-362: CON 189-196: LDs 70-74

Latest Spreadfair prices: LAB 357-359: CON 189-195: LDs 71-73.4.

Mike Smithson

But some good news for Howard and Kennedy

After Friday’s YouGov poll with a Labour lead of just one point a very different picture of the current political climate is shown in the January survey by Communicate Research for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday.

The figures are: LAB 40 (+1): CON 32 (-2) LD 20 (+1) and mean that the pollster’s Labour total is 2% higher than any other firm.

But all is not plain sailing for Tony Blair because the poll featured two elements that could undermine Labour’s current strong position.

For the Lib Dems the poll showed that 37% would vote Lib Dem if they thought the party had a realistic chance in their constituency.

For the Tories the poll shows that 71% said the Government did not have the problem of illegal immigration under control and 41% said that the issue might change the way they vote in the election, expected on May 5. Nearly a third of Labour supporters said they might switch on the issue.

All this chimes with the second YouGov poll if the week in the DailyTelegraph. When asked if Michael Howard was right to rise the issue, 71% thought he was, 18% thought him wrong. Only 12% of people thought it was racist of Michael Howard to raise the issue – 79% thought it wasn’t.

The 8% Labour margin will certainly stall the Tory recovery on the spread-betting markets but the other messages from the CR survey will dillute its overall impact.

The media, meanwhile is taking election betting much more seriously. The Telegraph financial pages will feature General Election odds and spread-betting prices every day between now and polling day.

Mike Smithson

An interesting new market on how many seats each of the main parties will win has been launched by Skybet. The structure is similar to the one that Bet365 recently had but with the seat options at levels more in keeping with current forecasts.

The markets make a good alternative for those wanting decent prices but are not willing to take the risks or get involved with the complications of spreadbetting.

Labour seats
7/4 0-340
15/8 340-365
6/4 365+

Conservative seats
5/4 0-190
2/1 190-205
15/8 205 +

Lib Dem Seats
7/4 0-65
6/4 65-70
5/4 70+

With these bets we like to look for value at the open-ended bottom or top ranges. With the Tories and Labour the mid-ranges are very much in line with current spread prices. With the Lib Dems however the latest spread prices are above 70 seats. If there is a value bet here it is the 5/4 on Charles Kennedy’s party getting more than 70.

No doubt some smart Politicalbetting users will find ways of combining these bets with the spread markets as Jon did so well two or three weeks ago.

Mike Smithson

In all the focus on spread-betting we’ve somewhat ignored the main General Election market on which party will win most seats.

This has just been spiced up by a new Labour price of 7/50 from SuperOdds – which offers almost twice the return as many of the other bookmakers. Given that you would only be locking up your stake for about 13 weeks this seems like a good value bet.

Betfair have a similar price but with the betting exchange you have to pay a commission of upto 5% on your winnings. Another Betfair market is on which party will get the second most seats. The Tory price is 1.15 – which looks pretty good value for what must be a near certainty. However the Lib Dems are doing they are going to be hard-pressed to leap above the Tories to the second seat position.

Apart from the election date markets there is almost nothing else to bet on. Bet365 seemed to have dropped their Commons seat markets and there are no takers for Blair/Labour in the Election Winner – party and person market.

So if you don’t want to take on the risk and complication of spread-betting the best, if not very profitable, punt out there is the 7/50 on Labour from Sporting Odds. It’s a better return than the building society.

Mike Smithson