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The spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland and the latter are roughly 0.97 of the former. So a Labour spread of 37-37.5% equates roughly to 38.1%-38.6% when comparing with an opinion poll.

The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index.

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here

HELPING POLITICALBETTING This is not a commercial site and is operated by my son Robert and I for what we describe as “fun”. With the massive increase in traffic we have huge bandwidth costs and we are hoping to be able to defray at least part of these from commissions we get from bookmakers. We would be grateful if you could use the links on the site and to mention Politicalbetting if you are opening an account. Many thanks.

Mike Smithson

First up tonight is Communicate Research in the Indpendent on Sunday which has LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-4): LD 23 (+5).

Next Thursday will be the first time CR has been tested against real results. It remains to be seen whether it can perform better than the pollster the Indy on Sunday used four years ago, Rasmussen, which with its automated phone methodology was the only firm to get the Tories right and got the Labour margin within 2%. All the others underestimated William Hague’s party. CR do not weight by past vote recall and until they introduced party prompts three weeks ago reported the lowest LD shares.

Second up is YouGov with LAB 36 (nc) : CON 33 (+1): LD 23 (-1) . So the only change since Friday has been a slight shift from the LDs to the Tories.

Although the embryonic YouGov did carry out polls for the 2001 General Election this will be the first major UK test for the internet-based firm which is so often criticised by other pollsters. Until now, however, whenever it has been tested in UK elections it has come out pretty well. This is not its final polls and perhaps two more surveys are expected before polling day.

Third up is ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph which has LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-2): LD 22 (+2) so unlike YouGov a move from the Tories to the Lib Dems.

ICM’s final poll in 2001 had an 11% Labour lead compared with the 9.3% that actually happened. Another ICM poll started at the same time with a larger sample had a 17% Labour lead. The pollster has not carried out any surveys since 2001 when it could be compared with real results. Further ICM polls are expected before polling day.

My big bet – several hundred a percentage point on a spread selling Labour at the equivalent of 38.6% – looks pretty good. Two polls showing Labour down a notch to 39% and the third showing no change.

Mike Smithson

Betting on votes – not seats

With Labour’s victory being almost as big a certainty as Sunderland South being the first seat to declare there’s increasing interest in the party vote share markets where you do not have to factor in the complicated and varied considerations about how the seats will divide.

And it is here that you can bet for or against the findings of specific opinion pollsters. If you think that YouGov are predicting this one best then there might be money to be made. The ICM figures also give some possibilities to gamblers.

But be warned. The spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland and the latter are roughly 0.97 of the former. So IG’s current Labour spread of 37-37.5% equates roughly to 38.1%-38.6% when comparing with an opinion poll.

If you think that YouGov is calling this right then a sell bet on Labour would be profitable. If you are an ICM fan then there would be money to be made with a buy bet, given that their last Labour share was 40%.

Labour vote share IG Index 37-37.5%: Sporting Index 37-37.75%: Spreadfair 37-37.7%

Tory vote share IG Index 33-33.5%: Sporting Index 33-33.75%: Spreadfair 33.5-34%

Lib Dem vote share IG Index 22-22.5% : Sporting Index 21.5-22.25%: Spreadfair 21.5- 22.2%

MY BETTING: I have just placed a big sell bet on Labour with IG at 37.5%. This equated to a GB figure of 38.6% and means that I am a winner unless the equivalent of at least 13 out of 14 Labour supporters of 2001 stick with the party. Unfortunately a short time after I had placed the bet the firm reduced the spread by 0.5% making it much less value. This was my biggest bet so far and after being a big critic of the pollsters for always over-stating Labour I am at least putting my money where my mouth is.

Mike Smithson

Could the small circulation Indy have an impact?

With the Independent looking set to endorse the Lib Dems on Thursday today’s splash lead seeks to undermine Labour’s core strategy for dealing with the Lib Dem threat.

The above is the front page that’s in the shops this morning and might well have an influence beyond the few hundred thousand who buy the paper each day. The story is very clear and could make Labour’s task in the final few days that much harder.

The paper reports …..Labour’s attempts to warn its wavering supporters that a vote for the Liberal Democrats could allow Michael Howard into No. 10 “by the back door” was undermined yesterday in a detailed study carried out for The Independent. The study found that a swing of 11.5 per cent from Labour voters to the Liberal Democrats could deprive Mr Blair of his overall Commons majority but it would be virtually impossible for such defections – at even twice that rate – to let in the Conservatives to form a government.

John Curtice, the respected psephologist and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who carried out the analysis, said: “Labour’s claim that switching from Labour to the Liberal Democrats could enable Mr Howard to win the election is highly misleading.” Professor Curtice said: “It is even highly unlikely any swing could result in the Conservatives becoming the largest party. The most likely consequence of any large switch from Labour to the Liberal Democrats is simply nobody would have an overall majority.” His study came as Labour sought to deflect attention from the row over the war in Iraq, with cabinet ministers raising the spectre of a Tory victory – made possible by disenchanted Labour voters deserting for Charles Kennedy’s party.

For months we have been arguing that Labour’s approach to this challenge was flawed simply because it is not true and the continued poor poll ratings for Michael Howard have just reinforced this. The alternatives to a large Labour majority are a small Labour majority or a hung parliament.

As we get closer to “make you mind up time” the Curtice report in the article could frame the way this issue is debated and presented on radio and TV.

BET OF DAY. You can get 12/1 against a hung parliament. Although we think a Labour majority is the most likely outcome the chance of a hung parliament is better than 12/1 and this is good value.

NOVELTY BET OF THE DAYDate of next election. . You can get 6/1 against it being before 2009. This price seems good because a consequence of a close result could be another General Election soon afterwards.

Mike Smithson