politicalbetting.com

Is David Davis really the man gamblers should thank?

One of the great bets at the end of last year was the 7/2 you could get against David Blunkett not surviving until the end of December in all the furore over the Kimberely Quinn paternity case. Blunkett was of course Home Secretary and David Davis was his Tory shadow.

Until yesterday’s formal launch of the David Davis campaign for the Tory leadership not everybody, we guess, fully realised the part that Davis played in Blunkett’s departure. For in a BBC potted history of the paternity affair the Shadow home Secretary’s name appears just once and that was a reference to a call he made sixteen days before the departure.

But according to the short biography on his campaign website one of Davis’s achievements, we are told, was that it was he who “prompted” Blunkett’s resignation.

This follows the the Newsnight feature on Wednesday which questioned the extent of his role in coming to the aid of a gay teenager while he was at school – something that he has spoken about. That can be explained because it was all a long time ago and people have different memories.

The Blunkett claim is different because he is talking about something that happened amidst a huge amount of publicity just ten months ago and is within people’s recall. You have to be careful about taking the credit for things that people know about.

Tory leadership betting prices

Conventional bookmakers best price: Davis 8/15: Clarke 11/4: Cameron 10/1: Fox 12/1: Rifkind 33/1

Betfair betting exchange: Davis 0.6/1: Clark 2.85/1: Cameron 8.8/1: Fox 11.5/1: Rifkind 84/1

BinaryBet spread market. Davis 56-63: Clarke 23-29: Cameron 5-9 Fox 5-9: Rifkind 1-3

Mike Smithson

How will tonight’s elections go?

As well as the PR disaster at the Labour conference itself the forceful eviction of 82 year-old Walter Wolfgang came on the eve of the two by-elections where the party is defending pretty safe majorities in Scotland.

Forcing the escapee from Nazi Germany from the conference hall and the constant repetition of the incident over the past 36 hours on television cannot have helped the Labour effort to get its vote out today in Livingston for Robin Cook’s old Westminster seat and Glasgow Cathcart where the ex-MSP is now in jail.

When Labour officials chose September 29th for the votes they must have thought that they would be helped by all the attendant publicity. Well there’s been coverage alright but not quite of the sort that enthuses activists.

We’ll know in a few hours just how the voting has gone but almost certainly some votes will have been lost because of what happened in Brighton.

Also overnight we should get the results of this week’s Thursday council by-elections. We have not got an exhaustive list but those we know about are at:-

Mike Smithson

How PB.C’s Tories swayed my betting

In the immediate aftermath of the French refendum in May rejecting the EU constitution I put a big spread bet on Ken Clarke for the Tory leadership because it appeared that the issue that distanced him from the bulk of his party had been kicked into touch. No UK referendum meant that he was not going to be put on the spot in the run-up to a similar UK vote.

From my non-Tory standpoint it was obvious that Ken was the man who would resonate most with voters. True – he carries a lot of baggage but he has a remarkable ability to shake it off.

Like Tony Blair Ken Clarke has the vital Teflon quality that means that things like his tobacco links don’t stick.

Within a week I closed down my position at a big profit after being influenced by the intense hostility that the former Chancellor aroused from many of the Tory participants in PB.C’s discussion forums. In June he hardly had any supporters.

Today I’m back into Ken in a big way – at a much reduced price. I’ve done it for the same reasons – the opinions lucidly expressed by Tory contributors here – many of whom are now supporting Ken because they argue that he is the only potential leader who has a chance, even if still a bit remote, of denting Labour’s majority at the next General Election.

Now the election process is under way there’ll be intense media scrutiny of the contenders and it is here that Clarke scores. Just compare the way he approaches interviews with David Davis. Yesterday I was invited to appear on Radio 4′s World at One and just before my interview they had David Davis on. I was flabbergasted by how the Shadow Home Secretary failed to project himself and clearly the producers were frustrated because they only ran him for about half a minute.

By all accounts Davis did a great job when he was chairman of the Commons Public Accounts Committee and as Shadow Home Secretary he can count at least one ministerial scalp to his credit. But a leader needs to have a presence and charisma and he needs to be good with the media.

The big danger of my betting position is that Clarke will not make the final two for the membership ballot. That’s a risk but I’m now convinced that if he does get to that stage then there’s more than an even chance that membership will elect him.

Tory leadership betting prices

Conventional bookmakers best price: Davis 8/15: Clarke 9/4: Cameron 10/1: Fox 12/1: Rifkind 33/1

Betfair betting exchange: Davis 0.59/1: Clark 3.1/1: Cameron 13.5/1: Fox 10.5/1: Rifkind 69/1

BinaryBet spread market. Davis 56-63: Clarke 23-29: Cameron 5-9 Fox 5-9: Rifkind 1-3

Mike Smithson

…

Does yesterday make the Gordon-David show a touch less likely?

After the events of this week the one almost sure thing that you can predict about the next General Election is that Oxford University’s stranglehold on UK politics will be broken.

For the first time since Stanley Baldwin in 1935 an election looks set to be won by someone who was educated at a University other than Oxford. The only exceptions in the past 70 years, Churchill and Major, were not graduates.

Although Gordon Brown looks very good to take over at Number 10 the Edinburgh graduate must be concerned by Tony Blair’s message that he is going on for most of his third time. If a week is a long time in politics then three years looks set to be an eternity and many things can happen that could blow the Brown succession off course.

For the Warwick alumnus, David Davis, yesterday’s decision to leave the final decision on the Tory leadership with the grassroots could make his task that much harder. Not only does it add to the time-scale but dealing with an electorate of 300,000 Tory members is much more challenging than getting support from 197 fellow MPs. The polls show a sharp turnround in the view of the Tory membership since the contest started in May.

Now next week’s Blackpool conference and the beauty parade will give the membership and the media the chance to look long and hard at the credentials of each of the contenders – a context that might just hinder the Shadow Home Secretary.

Davis’s backstop could be the support he enjoys amongst MPs. They could vote that the short-list of two to go to the membership ballot should not include Ken Clarke (Cambridge) . But if Clarke has a good conference and the polls continue to go his way then surely his Westminster colleagues will be less likely to stop his name going forward to the final vote.

The relative lack of support in the media might cost Davis dear. He should have been like Tony Blair and been out courting editors for years – but if he has been doing this it is not yet showing through.

The Independent says that yesterday was “a boost for Davis” while the Telegraph has it as a “boost for Clarke”.

Mike Smithson