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Are the latest results a pointer to Thursday’s Battle for the Town Halls?

April can be a bit of a poor month for local by-elections, in April 2005 there were only three across the entire country. Thankfully April 2006 has been a bit more interesting with 24 council by-elections being held up and down the country, and with the local elections being held in 176 councils next Thursday everyone will be wondering whether we have have a precursor to those elections. First of all though, a summary of the main events.

Conservatives
The Conservatives were trying to defend 13 seats in April 2006 and ended the month also with 13 seats (by the most complicated means possible). Things didn’t get off to a good start when they lost Lesbury in Alnwick to the Lib Dems, but the same day they picked up Wythall South in Bromsgrove from the Independents. And just as their hearts gladened at the gain of Winster and South Dorsely in Derbyshire Dales from the Lib Dems, along came a Lib Dem gain from Con in Warminster East in West Wiltshire. Still overall having polled 47% in three cornered fights in April, a very strong starting line for the Locals next week.

Labour
Considering all the trouble Labour has had on the local by-election front the party has had a month almost akin to 1997. Defending two seats, they managed to end up with four! They gained Cleaton Moor North in Copeland from the Independents and also managed a marvellous hit in Mablethorpe East in East Lindsey by gaining the seat from the Liberal Democrats. And yet despite all this sucess they were only able to poll 18% in all three cornered fights.

Liberal Democrats
If Labour had a spectactular month, the Lib Dems were sort of happy just to survive the month. Defending six seats, they managed to lose one (Mablethorpe East in East Lindsey) and gain three (in Lesbury in Alnwick from Con, Frome Keyford in Mendip from Ind and Warminster East in West Wiltshire also from Con) and polled a modest 28% in all three cornered fights. Could this indicate tactical voting? People voting for the Liberal Democrats as the most likely person to defeat the incumbent (regardless of which party that incumbent is from)? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Independents
You have to feel sorry for the Independents on occasions. There they are determined to stand out on their own forcing their own political agenda without any party whips and in April 2006 they were wiped out. They lost Wythall South to the Conservatives in Bromsgrove, Cleator Moor North in Copeland to Labour and Frome Keyford in Mendip to the Liberal Democrats and only managed to poll 1% in all three cornered fights. Is the age of the Independent councillor over? If so, what implications could that have on the Scottish elections next year (where several councils are controlled by Independent groups)?

So, what about Thursday?
Well, if at the end of the night Jeremy Vine produces a projected national share like April 2006′s local by-elections every Labour MP in the country will be nervous as anything the following week. The three cornered figures suggest: Con 47% Lib Dem 28% Lab 18% UKIP 5% Ind 1% which when translated into UK national shares is: Con 43% Lab 30% Lib Dem 22% Others 5%. A Conservative lead of 13% over Labour (representing a swing of 8% to Con since Election 2005). Or to put it into Parliamentary terms: Conservatives 360 (+162) Labour 219 (-137) Liberal Democrats 43 (-19) Others 24 (-7) giving a Conservative majority of 74.

And whilst we are on the subject of Parliament, we can’t gloss over Moray now can we? SNP hold with an increased majority over the Conservatives with the Labour vote collapsing and going predominately to the Liberal Democrats. A sign of things to come in next year’s Scottish elections to Holyrood?

Harry Hayfield is a Lib Dem activist in Wales

Mike Smithson note Getting good visual images to accompany our threads are important and the pictures I’ve chosen to illustrate Harry’s piece are, from left to right, the town halls of Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and Ealing – all the subject of betting activity and where there might be changes in control.

Pictures play an important part on the site and if anybody has good shots that I can use then please email the picture or URL to me. Polling day pictures – posters, rosettes or groups of happy/unhappy activists are particularly welcome. So if you are carrying camera phone next Thursday don’t forget PB.C.

Every cloud has its silver lining for Lucky Tony

My suggestion on Thursday that the problems with Charles Clarke and John Prescott could actually help Tony Blair stay longer at Number 10 was greeted with a mixed reception on the site.

For I argued that the problems with his troubled cabinet colleagues could help him spread the blame a bit more after Thursday when Labour suffers the expected drubbing in the local elections.

But there’s another element in the current situation that could make Blair’s tenure that bit more secure – the undermining of the authority of John Prescott.

For the Deputy PM is just about the only senior Labour politician with the authority to lead a “delegation of men in grey suits” to tell Tony that his time is up.

Andrew Rawnsley sums is it well in today’s Observer: “..It was in the power of Prescott to pull the trigger on the Prime Minister by making a public declaration demanding an early date from Mr Blair for his departure. The one solace for the Prime Minister in a sea of troubles is that this threat has evaporated. The debagging of the Deputy Prime Minister contributes to the impression of a government that is simultaneously arrogant, ridiculous and reckless. But it does have this consolation for Number 10. John Prescott is now a much weakened figure whose residual credibility is threatened with more demolition from further revelation. Instead of John Prescott being in a position to tell Tony Blair how long he has left in Number 10, it is now John Prescott who is fighting to save his own job and what shreds remain of his dignity. “

The market on when Tony will go continues to be very interesting. I’m keeping my cash on him being there at the end of next year.

Mike Smithson <

Lib Dems only up 1% and Blair’s ratings the worst ever

A new YouGov poll tonight has with comparisons on the last survey from the same pollster nine days ago CON 35 (+2): LAB 32 (-3): LD 18 (+1). Amongst a large “others” total the BNP is at 6% – down one. UKIP and the Greens are on 3% each.

The declining Labour share is perhaps not surprising given the traumatic events of the week but the big surprise, surely, is that the internet pollster does not seem to have picked up the big Lib Dem increases seen in the recent ICM and MORI surveys.

Something is wrong somewhere when within the space of a few days YouGov is showing a Lib Dem figure which is just three-quarters of that found by ICM.

The explanation lies with the weightings the two pollsters use. YouGov seeks to create a sample where 13.9% of respondents have previously identified themselves as party supporters. ICM are currently working on a past vote recall proportion of about 21% for the party. Other findings in the poll include:-

So in spite of all the troubles those surveyed were divided equally on whether Brown should replace Blair now. David Cameron maintains a healthy approval rating margin of 20%. Interestingly even Labour voters in the survey do not give the Tory leader a negative rating dividing 41-41.

What must be worrying for the Gordon Brown camp is the decline in support for the Chancellor. Those surveyed were divided equally on whether there should be an immediate change-over with Labour supporters supporting Blair by 61-28. Brown’s “doing well/badly” positive margin of 4% compares with the 43% that he had exactly a year ago – a dramatic fall.

If the Brown figures are reinforced by other pollsters it might just take the pressure off Blair should Thursday’s local election results be bad for Labour.

The price on Tony Blair still being there at the end of next year is 2.85/1. This and other political markets including Thursday’s local elections can be found here.

Mike Smithson

Why you should be wary of surveys taken during long weekends

With so much going on the political front there are almost certain to be opinion surveys carried out this weekend. If they are then treat them with extra caution because they might be subject to the bank holiday effect.

Many will remember the famous Populus tracker poll that was published on the day before the General Election last year and showed Labour on 41%, the Tories on 27% with the Lib Dems at 23%. While the figure for Charles Kennedy’s party was almost spot on the poll over-estimated Labour’s eventual support by five points and underestimated the Tories by six.

In the post-mortem afterwards Labour’s 14% lead was put down to the “bank holiday effect.” For whatever reason pollsters find it extraordinarily difficult getting balanced samples during long holiday weekends. Tories, in particular, are in very short supply.

The survey was based on interviews that took place on the Saturday, Sunday and Monday of the May bank holiday weekend. The tracker poll before that and the Populus final poll showed much smaller Labour margins.

Looking at the detailed data from the Populus 14% poll you can see the challenge the pollster faced. For every two people they could find who said they had voted Labour at the previous General Election less than one person was interviewed who had voted Tory.

The problem is that although correcting mechanisms are in place to deal with sample distortion not all is taken into account. Populus is currently weighting its polls on the basis of a 9% Labour lead from last May – triple the actual figure. I am much happier with the ICM calculation which has it at 6.5%. Still Populus is substantially better than Mori which has no past vote weighting adjustment at all.

This bank holiday phenomenon is so well-known that Anthony Wells of UK PollingReport suggested on Tuesday that the the April ICM survey for the Guardian had been put back a week to avoid interviews taking place over Easter.

So if a poll does come out during the next few days check the survey dates very closely. For any sign that Labour is weathering the current crisis might be because party supporters are much more likely than Tories to be be at home answering the phone during long weekends.

Mike Smithson