politicalbetting.com

But will Blaenau and Bromley be dismissed as just by-elections?

By the tests set in my article just as the polls were closing the overnight by-elections brought terrible news for both Brown/Blair’s Labour and David Cameron’s Tories. They also showed that the Lib Dems are able to pack a huge punch in a Westminster by-election whichever party is defending.

The straight politics make Labour’s results marginally, but only marginally, worse than the Tory performance in Bromley.

For Brown-Blair’s party threw everything into winning back what was its biggest stronghold in Wales and had the benefit of two by-elections at the same time which meant it could spend massively. It will be interesting to see the expenses figure but the party campaign budget could have gone up to £200,000.

Failing to win back Peter Laws’s Welsh Assembly seat has big implications for who has control in Cardiff.

There’s no excuse for the Tory performance in Bromley. The only consolation on the evening is that they held on against a huge Lib Dem challenge but to see the majority reduced to a few hundred should light up panic signs throughout the party.

Everything about the Tory campaign was pathetic. All the polls showed that their biggest asset is David Cameron yet the local Tory party made only passing reference to their leader in the campaign literature. This followed the selection mess-up and you had a recipe for disaster which is indeed what happened.

In the Guardian a couple of days ago Ed Vaizey, one of Cameron’s inner circle, complained about Lib Dem tactics. What did he expect – Mary Poppins?

Campaigns like this are a dirty, bruising, business. The Lib Dem strategy of finding a defect in their opponent and then repeat it time and time and time again is well known. That is how you achieve success. To deal with campaigns like this you cannot leave the fight in the hands of a local party. Maybe one of the consequences of Bromley will be a change in Tory rules?

So what about the Lib Dems? A great performance but the party has an enormous amount to live up to when it comes to by-elections and the danger is that Bromley will be dismissed by the Tory-Labour big party duopoly as just Ming’s party doing what they are expected to do.

And the betting? – well, as I suggested, betting against Labour in Blaenau proved profitable and it’s clear why Tories did not rush to take the apparently free money on Bromley.

And the pollsters? Less than two weeks ago NOP had Labour as clear winners for the Westminster seat at Blaenau. Polls have not got a good record at by-elections and this reinforced it. The poll also carried on that wonderful UK polling tradition of over-estimating Labour.

New YouGov poll. I’ve just noticed that there’s a new survey in the Telegraph which I’ll cover later in the day.

Mike Smithson

Which party’s done best in “expectation management”?

So the polls are about to close, the counts will soon be starting and most normal people will be off to bed without any thought about the events during the day in Gwent and South East London.

Now the big question is how the electoral health of the parties will look after the spinners have done their “explaining” and the radio and TV news teams have decided how to present what’s happened. This is my summary.

Bad news for Labour will be failing to win back the Westminster seat in Blaneau Gwent. After huge effort and probably outspending their opponents many times over Labour desperately need a result.

Bad news for the Tories will be anything less than an emphatic victory in Bromley. A margin of 10% over whoever is in second place is needed at the minimum.

Bad news for the Lib Dems will be if the Tories are more than ten points ahead. They are the by-election Kings and there’s an expectation of exceptional performances. With significant a Labour vote there for the squeezing they should be biting at the Tories’ heels.

Bad news for Labour will be being reduced to a single figure vote share in Bromley. After all they were in second place only fourteen months ago. It will be even worse for Blair’s party if they are reduced to fourth place.

Bad news for UKIP will be not making a significant indent into the main three parties. They’ve had the Heffer-effect and one of their best known and most effective campaigners as candidate. UKIP needs a good result.

Bad news for me will be if the Lib Dems win in Bromley because I’ve got no money on.

Mike Smithson

It’s now down to 0.06/1 that Bob Neil will do it for the Conservatives

After a long period when the only question about the Bromley betting was why punters were not rushing to pick up what was apparently free money on the Tories things have started to happen. The chart show the implied probability based on best betting prices on the Betfair betting exchange.

At 3.55pm the prices were CON 0.06/1: LD 11/1.

Mike Smithson

“Labour by 1% in BG but heading for 4th place in Bromley”

Following the close of the PB.C by-election competition, the contest for the Westminster seat at Blaenau Gwent looks to be neck-and-neck.

By averaging out all the entries received we are able to state what the overall view of all those who took part is and it will be interesting to see if their collective wisdom is accurate. These are the figures.

Blaenau Gwent – Westminster: LAB 42.7: IND 41.6: LD 5.9: PC 5.13: CON 4.3

Blaenau Gwent – Cardiff: LAB 37.9: IND 47.6: LD 5.4: PC 4.9: CON 3.8

Bromley & Chislehurst: CON 51.2: LD 26.9: UKIP 10.4: LAB 8.9

So in the closest contest, to replace the late Peter Laws at Westminster, Labour are predicted to receive 42.7% of the vote, with independent candidate Dai Davies just behind on 41.6%. 45 entries predicted a Labour win while 36 plumped for Davies.

In the Welsh Assembly by-election his widow, Trish Law, is predicted to win fairly comfortably, and leads Labour by 47.6% to 37.9% on the average scores, and only five entries predicted Labour to win. In both the Blaenau Gwent elections, the other parties are well down into single figures.

Meanwhile in Bromley & Chislehurst, the Conservatives are predicted to romp home with an average prediction of 51.2%, well ahead of the Lib Dems on 26.9% – all but one entry fore-casted a win for the Conservatives.

If the PB.C predictions are right, then Labour are in for an embarassing night being forced into fourth place.

The betting markets on all three election have proved to be a flop attracting very little interest. The two biggest interests – the size of the Tory share in Bromley and whether Labour will be pushed into fourth place have not been part of any betting market.

There’s been very little serious intent behind the betting on the Lib Dems and very few takers on the Tories where the 0.13/1 appears like free money.

Mike Smithson & Paul Maggs (“Double Carpet”)