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Could the UKIP caravan hurt the Tories?

The current favourite to succeed Roger Knapman in the UKIP leadership elecrtion which closes on September 7 is MEP Nigel Farage, who stood for the party in the Bromley by-election.

The key point that Farage has grasped is that UKIP can no longer rely upon being a single-issue party if it wishes to grow. In his Manifesto, he sets out his view of the Party’s philosophy:

We are a unique brand. Nationalist with a small ‘n’, libertarian, and in favour of small government and Parliamentary sovereignty. We are opposed to unlimited immigration, high taxes and bureaucracy. He believes that this philosophy, with an obvious appeal to the strongly right-of-centre, will enable the party to build beyond its current small base.

Farage’s main rival is Party Chairman David Campbell Bannerman, the great-great-great-great-nephew of Sir Henry, Liberal Prime-Minister from 1906-8. After many years as a Conservative Councillor, Campbell Bannerman joined UKIP four years ago. He, too, recognises that the party is at a cross-roads:

Does the Party wish to stay as it is – small, single issue focused, doing well in Euro elections, occasionally making a lot of noise, with one regular face, but not achieving enough credibility or success in British domestic politics? Or does it change gear to become a larger, serious party of opposition, more professional in its approach, with a full policy manifesto and real commitment to winning elections of all sorts – local, Scottish, Welsh, mayoral and Westminster as well as Euro elections – and able to take advantage of the huge opportunities of a disenchanted electorate and failed old parties ?

Cambell Bannerman also advocates the sort of robust rightist agenda proposed by Farage; that was in the Conservatives’ 2005 Manifesto; and that David Cameron is now seeking to eschew to improve his party’s electoral fortunes.

Cameron’s centrist strategy for the Conservatives is based on seeking to capture moderate voters from Labour and the Lib Dems and while his core vote may grumble, it has nowhere else to go so will continue loyally to put their Xs in the blue column

But if UKIP gets it act together in the direction that the two front-runners for its leadership propose, then could a serious competitive threat to the Conservatives emerge?

It has been no means clear that the current, single-issue UKIP takes the majority of its support from the Conservatives. The party has hurt the Tories in past elections, but probably not as much as it might have. But if UKIP adopted a broader, “Old Tory” policy platform, would it have a more direct appeal to the traditionalist Conservative voter that Cameron needs to remain on board?

Lord Tebbit recently wrote in the Spectator:“..Bromley suggests that while Conservative voters do believe that the new Conservative Party is unlike the one they used to support, Mr Cameron’s target Labour and Liberal voters do not, and the Tories are in danger of missing the electoral opportunity of a lifetime”.

Finally, if UKIPs campaigning strength were to be more carefully targeted in the manner used most effectively by the Liberal Democrats, then might it bring them their first Westminster seats and thus at a stroke remove the largest hurdle to their future – credibility? This would set them well on the road to their major goal of replacing the Conservatives on the right of British politics.

As yet there is no betting market on the UKIP leadership.

Tabman is Lib Dem blogger and has been a long-standing contributor to the site

Note from Mike Smithson. PBC welcomes guest contributions which should be of interest to users with the emphasis being on posing questions to provoke interesting discussions rather than making assertions. I reserve the right to shorten and edit all contributions. Please email here.

A boost for Ming or the product of the firm’s methodology?

The latest poll from Mori in today’s Financial Times has with changes on the last poll at the end of June CON 36 (nc): LAB 32 (-1): LD 24 (+3). – so a big boost for the Lib Dem leader with the biggest share for the party since last September.

The poll is quite old. The survey started on July 20th – one day before work began on the July ICM survey for the Guardian – and finished on July 24th, a week ago.

Whatever figures that Mori are showing I never get too excited and would certainly never risk money on one of their polls.

Unlike ICM, Populus, and YouGov the Mori approach does not involves weighting its samples by past vote or a party identifier. It is thus much more reliant on getting a representative sample. The one filter it does use is that its headline figures only include those who say they would be “certain to vote” in a General Election.

Another factor that might have an impact is that the Mori “certainty to vote” question is put at the end of the interview while ICM has this at the start. It is often argued that later responses in a polling survey might be “conditioned” by what has been asked before.

Mori’s monthly party shares tend to be much less stable than the other pollsters and thus more newsworthy. Journalists love big changes and polls which one show minute movements get much less attention.

Thus the Sun made a big splash of the Mori poll last January that reported a 6% drop in the Lib Dem share to fifteen points. During that period the highly stable ICM polls never showed a Lib Dem share below 19%.

Whatever these numbers will certainly have a political impact because of the febrile situation created by the Middle East crisis. The Lib Dems seem to be on the right side of public opinion and this will reinforce Ming’s position.

Although the voting intention numbers are subject to the “certain to vote” filter this does not apply to the rest of the data from the survey. Among the others questions Mori has support for Blair at its lowest point ever and more people being against Cameron than for him.

To Lib Dems I would say – remember what you were saying about the Mori methodology after that 6% drop in January.

Mike Smithson

……and the part 1 winner is ROGER

Last Sunday we launched a small prize competition. People were asked to you use their imagination to guess what will be the next David Cameron policy move after “Hug a Hoodie”

There were two prizes on offer – copies of my book on politics and betting that’s just been commissioned and will be published during 2007.

There were well over 150 entries and after much deep consideration I have decided to award the prize in the first category to Roger.

I very much liked his post 57 “All Public schools to become Faith Schools. Eton to become Jewish seminary. Known as Mazel-toffs”.

But the one which amused me most and just had the right feel about it was post 65: “Gypsies to be the new environmental roll models. All towns and villages to provide parking space for travellers caravans free. Special dedicated parking space for Caravans in HOC car-park. All councils objecting to be fined heavily. Campaign to be known as “Let a Gyp kip””

Congratulations Roger and your prize will be sent to you as soon as the book is published.

Mike Smithson

How long can he go on with his cabinet so divided?

With the situation in the Middle East continuing to take its toll how long can Tony Blair go on pursuing his aggressive pro-Israel strategy which is so unpopular in the polls and according to this morning’s papers is opening up big rifts within his cabinet?

The main stories in the Sunday Telegraph, the Sunday Times and the Observer this morning focus on the critical statement issued by the former Foreign Secretary and leader of the house, Jack Straw, following a meeting yesterday with Muslin leaders in his constituency.

The Observer goes on to say that it can “…reveal that at a cabinet meeting before Blair left for last Friday’s Washington summit with President George Bush, minister after minister pressed him to break with the Americans and publicly criticise Israel over the scale of death and destruction. The critics included close Blair allies. One, the International Development Secretary, Hilary Benn, was revealed yesterday to have told a Commons committee that he did not view Israel’s strikes on power stations as a ‘proportionate response’ to Hizbollah attacks.
Another Blairite minister among the cabinet critics said: ‘It was clear that Tony knows the situation, and didn’t have to be told about the outrage felt by so many over the disproportionate suffering. He also completely understands the effect on the Muslim community – both in terms of losing Muslim voters hand over fist and the wider issue of community cohesion.’

Today Blair is expected to reinforce his opponents’ concerns with a speech to Rupert Murdoch executives in California when he is expected to say that Hezbollah must be rooted out of Lebanon if there is to be a lasting peace in the Middle East. Neither the contents nor the context of the speech will endear him to Labour’s mainstream.

The danger, surely, is that Blair’s detachment from the party coming on top of the loans affair could just create an environment where the Brownites feel confident of mounting a coup. September’s conference could be very interesting

So far Brown’s ultra cautious approach has stopped such a move – but there will come a point where the Chancellor might damage his own career ambitions if he continues to do nothing.

I still think that the 5/1 that’s available on Blair going in the final quarter of 2006 represents good value.

Mike Smithson