politicalbetting.com

The secret survey that shows Ken could be in trouble

When on Tuesday Ken sought to counter the latest YouGov mayoral figures by revealing party private polling data he set off a disclosure process that has, for the first time I believe, allowed us to look at the full numbers from a Labour survey that was supposed to be secret.

And with this election looking very tight a key factor will be how the second preferences split – will they favour Ken as they did four years ago or could they offer something to the Tory challenger, Boris Johnson?

From this poll, at least, it is not looking good for the incumbent. According to his party’s MORI data for every three second preference votes that he’s getting his Tory opponent is picking up four.

Labour’s private poll looked at this in three ways and on each approach the picture was the same – whether for all those naming a choice, the “certains to vote” or from a third question that has so far not been revealed – a forced choice between Boris and Ken

To the question “Thinking specifically about Boris Johnson, the Conservative candidate and Ken Livingstone, the Labour candidate, if you were forced to choose between
them, which would you prefer to be Mayor of London?” those certain to vote split Ken 49% to Boris’s 47%. Given that when all candidates were included Ken had a four point lead this underlines the point.

There’s a further factor which should be worrying the Ken camp – turnout. In 2004 this was 36.95%. The “certain to vote” proportion in this Labour Mori poll was 48%. My view is that the smaller the turnout figure the more challenging the election will be for Ken and that it will end up being closer to what happened last time than the polling figure.

It should be noted that the later YouGov poll with Boris 5% ahead was taken after the Lee Jasper suspension, does not include any probing on second preferences and had no turnout element.

In the Mayoral betting Ken has continued to move out. He’s now at 0.79/1. Based on the information we now have Ken is worth laying at anything up to evens.

Mike Smithson

Should she have avoided “calling for a pillow” for Obama”?

The above thirty second snatch has probably been the most widely criticised part of Hillary’s performance in the debate overnight. It was as though she was trying to make herself look the victim.

On the issue at stake, whether she was always asked the first question, commentators have noted that on at least three occasion she jumped into to answer a point without one of the moderators suggesting that she should.

The nomination betting prices have hardly moved with Obama on 0.22/1.

Mike Smithson

The MORI poll he reported is nearly three weeks old

I have now got the fieldwork dates and some other details from the private MORI poll for Labour that Ken “pulled out of the hat” as news of the 5% deficit in the YouGov survey came out.

The MORI fieldwork started getting on for three weeks ago, on February 8th and went on until the 12th. A sample of 808 Londoners was interviewed by telephone.

The survey found on that on the first round it was 38% Livingstone, 35% Johnson and 14% Paddick. When second preferences were taken into account that moved to Ken 49% to Boris 47%.

The latest YouGov poll, which was commissioned by a media organisation, ITN, was conducted last week and had Boris on 44%, Ken on 39% with Paddick at 12%. In between the MORI and YouGov polls lee Jasper was suspended.

My understanding is that Labour and Ken knew about the MORI poll almost as soon as it had been completed but it was deemed to be a deadly secret because of the closeness of the finding.

When Ken announced it yesterday, without providing the supporting data, I asked MORI for the detailed information and they obviously were not expecting the request.

I am assured that the full data will be provided in the two day time period that is laid down.

In the Mayoral betting Ken has moved out to 0.74/1 with Boris moving in to 1.2/1. My view, based on the evidence we have, is that Boris is now the marginal favourite.

Mike Smithson

Could Clinton’s sustained attacks impede Obama?

The final debate ahead of the critical March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio has ended with Hillary not managing to make the knock-out blow that she needed to.

My view was that she probably won on points – but only by a narrow margin. The questioning by MSNBC’s political team was much tougher than we have seen.

At one point I thought that Hillary “had” her opponent when he was pressed about an endorsement from Louis Farrakhan, the controversial Islamic minister. Obama said he denounced Farrakhan but Clinton suggested that he needed to do more and reject the endorsement. After some pressure Obama accepted the point and his good humour won it with the audience but my guess is that the Clinton spinners will point to this as a victory.

Obama was not convincing when pressed on what he would do if the Russians intervened in Kosovo. Hillary was perhaps fortunate that the question was not put to her.

The nomination betting prices have hardly moved with Obama on 0.22/1.

Mike Smithson