politicalbetting.com

Con 38 (-3) Lab 31 (+1) Lib Dem 17 (n/c)

A poll out tonight by ComRes for the Independent shows a lead of seven points for the Conservatives, down by four since the previous poll. Fieldwork was 28-30 March and the unweighted base was 1004 respondents.

The Tories are down by three on 38 percent, Labour up by one to 31, and the Lib Dems are unchanged on 17 – it remains to be seen what impact Nick Clegg’s interview comments today will have on his party’s popularity.

The reduction in the Conservative lead since the last ComRes poll back into single figures will obviously cheer Labour – latest UK election prices are here.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

Guest Editor

Should you be capitalising on the lies about the 2004 polls?

The Labour spin machine has gone into overdrive today to try to discredit the latest YouGov poll that shows Ken Livingstone again facing a double digit polling deficit in his battle with Boris Johnson.

A statement by the party said: “…YouGov has a record of significantly underestimating Ken Livingstone’s vote in London. On the day before the last Mayoral election YouGov put put Ken Livingstone just two per cent ahead of the Conservative Steve Norris, leading to an Evening Standard headline of ‘It’s Neck and Neck’ even although Livingstone actually won by nearly 11 per cent.”

This is a fabrication by the party and should be dismissed. The facts are that on the day before the 2004 vote the Evening Standard carried a report of a YouGov survey which found that amongst all potential electors Livingstone was beating Norris by 37% to 26%. When the second preference votes were taken into account, YouGov found a split of 55% to 45%. The actual result after the second preferences were counted was Livingstone 55.4% to Norris’s 44.6% – which meant that YouGov was right to within 0.8%

These figures are directly comparable with the poll that is out today. YouGov has by far the best record of any pollster London in mayoral elections in spite of what Labour chooses to say. In 2004 the only other firm to carry out a surveys before the election, Populus, found a 58% to 42% split in Ken’s favour.

Given the polling the betting story of the day is the way Ken’s price has held up. Clearly there are a lot of punters out their who are gambling not to make money but to show their support for their allegiance – the technical betting term is “mugs”. My guess is that they are being fuelled by Labour’s lies.

The latest prices are Boris 0.45/1 and Ken 2.25/1.

Mike Smithson

Boris 47, Ken 37, Brian 10 – Boris leads 56-44 after second preferences

A new poll out today for the Evening Standard / ITV London Tonight shows Boris Johnson, who officially opened his campaign today, with a 10-point lead over Ken Livingstone, while the Lib Dems’ Brian Paddick trails on 10% of first preferences.

After re-allocating second preferences, this translates into a 12-point lead for Boris of 56-44, or a swing of about 11% from the performance of Steve Norris in 2004. Full details of the poll are here.

Latest prices are here – and Boris has already moved in four basis points to 1.43 now that a second poll has given him a big lead. With just over a month to go, Ken has it all to do.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

Guest Editor

Could the City Hall outcome be a marker for Downing Street?

If London ITV is following its normal pattern then either today or tomorrow we should see a new opinion poll of voters in the capital on the London mayoralty. The organisation commissioned a YouGov survey at the end of every month since December and let us hope that it is following the normal pattern.

I took last week’s news, which wasn’t as far as I know denied, that Downing Street thought that Ken was going to be beaten as a sure sign that Labour’s private polling was confirming that Boris was ahead by a substantial margin – a fortnight ago YouGov had it at 12%.

So the evidence is mounting that the Tories will take City Hall in four and a half week’s time and certainly this is how punters are seeing it. The latest betting has Boris at 0.47/1.

But the mayoral race is, after all, only a local election. The big question is whether it will tell us anything about the general election and whether, in particular, being a “Toff” is no longer an electoral liability.

Certainly conventional wisdom in the Tory party has been that going to Eton and Oxbridge, like Boris and Dave, could alienate voters and, indeed, this was said to be one of the main reasons in 1990 why Douglas Hurd’s leadership bid floundered.

This view has been shared by many in the Labour party – just look at the way it has sought to portray both Johnson and Cameron. Only a month ago at the party’s spring conference Boris coming from Eton and “being posh” were a key part of the anti-Johnson rhetoric. This might fire up the activists but if it is shown not to impact on elections then other lines of attack on Cameron will need to be emphasised.

In the general election betting I can see a Tory victory on May 1st prompting an even stronger move to the Tories – but a lot could happen in the next month.

Mike Smithson