The MORI detail: Has Ken benefited from the rounding?
April 9th, 2008
The data shows that there were only four votes in it
The full detail from today’s MORI London poll is just out and the top-line split is much tighter than the 51%-49% Ken-Boris headline figures that have been reported.
Look at the table above and you will see how close it is. Taking those “certain to vote” – the pollster’s standard filter, of first and qualifying second preferences and you find 207 for Ken against 203 for Boris.
This works out at 49.51% for Boris and 50.48% for Ken. If the former had been rounded up and the latter had been rounded down it would have been 50-50.
This is almost exactly in line with last week’s ICM survey for the Guardian.
Other points to note from the details is that Boris has a good margin amongst white voters but that Ken scores very well with the BMEs where the split is 73% to 27%. The latter figures are based on all responses not just those saying they are certain to vote.
Overall of the 1,000 people interviewed 48% said they would certainly be voting – a proportion which is considerably higher than the 35-36% turnout that we have seen in the previous two mayoral elections.
In the betting Ken’s price has tightened 6/4 while Boris has moved out to 0.6/1.
Mike Smithson