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Why hasn’t Dominic Grieve been a bit more high profile?

It’s not often that a new government in Europe leads one to the Conservative frontbench, but another Grand Coalition will take office in Austria early next week, and as with the previous government, it’s headed up by a Social Democrat Chancellor while the conservative People’s Party holds the remaining big posts of Finance, Foreign Affairs and the Interior Ministry. With the “comparative politics hat” firmly affixed, a UK equivalent of the new administration in Vienna would have a “big four” of Brown, Osborne, Hague, and Dominic Grieve.

The other three, whatever you may think of them, are major figures in UK politics, but it might be pushing it to say the same of Grieve, appointed in the wake of David Davis’ surprise resignation to fight the multi-candidate by-election in Haltemprice & Howden. The Home Office has long been a high profile and traditionally “difficult” portfolio to hold in government, containing as it does such responsibilities as the police, prisons, and immigration, which receive much attention from the media.

So why is it that Dominic Grieve, after spending several months in what should be a high-profile shadow role, isn’t really much less little-known than when he started it? Unlike his opposite number who will struggle to hold on in Redditch, he has a safe seat for life in the shape of Beaconsfield, so couldn’t fairly claim to be distracted by having to nurse his constituency. Rightly or wrongly, modern politics at home and abroad is fought out in the media, and here his presence does seem to have been diminished and muted compared to his predecessor. How many members of the public would be able to correctly identify him from a picture?

As Greengate unfolded, David Davis has been on the media having his say on the situation as a mere backbench MP – but is the current crisis an opportunity for Grieve (as today) to be thrust into the limelight more to argue his party’s case, and be putting Jacqui Smith under pressure at a very difficult time for her – and perhaps in so doing significantly enhance his reputation and as it were “earn his spurs”?

The suggestion persists however that Dominic Grieve may have been merely “keeping the seat warm” for a possible future return for Davis ahead of a final shadow cabinet resuffle before the Conservatives go into the long pre-election period. Grieve was a surprise and hasty appointment as the Davis resignation drama unfolded, and might he thus end up merely being a stopgap? Cameron could move Nick Herbert to Shadow Attorney General, and put Davis at Justice, or move Grieve to Justice and give Davis his old job back. There could also be some combination of moving Osborne/Hague to a DPM-in-waiting type role.

The Conservatives will not be taking the next GE for granted and know that they will have to fight hard to win it, and like the last opposition to take power, be ruthlessly focused and disciplined, even in the face of apparently unassailable poll leads. Given that Labour have brought back Mandelson (with Blunkett still to return?) in the “all hands to the pump” meme, shouldn’t Cameron bring back the “big beast” of David Davis, currently languishing on the backbenches, and who could help the party in the north, in a SCOAT (Shadow Cabinet of all the Talents)? If Shadsy’s reading this, how about a market on who’ll be the Shadow Home Sec going into the next general election? What price Dominic Grieve?

International round-up

India – ministers resign in the wake of Mumbai

US – Hillary expected to be announced as Secretary of State on Monday

Canada – Tories blink first in showdown

Romania holds election, Switzerland votes on heroin

Double Carpet

Cameron – “this is a watershed moment”: Brown must speak out

How will Clegg’s aeroplane comments play in the Lib Dems?

Writing in the News of the World, David Cameron calls on the PM to “make his opinions clear” on the Green arrest.

“…does he think it is right for an MP who has apparently done nothing to breach our national security to have his home and office searched by a dozen counter-terrorist police officers, his phone, BlackBerry and computers confiscated, and to be arrested and held for nine hours? …if this approach had been in place in the 1990s, then Gordon Brown would have spent most of his time under arrest. He made his career from passing on Whitehall leaks. And he’ll be guilty of hypocrisy if he doesn’t speak out.”

The Mail on Sunday reports on the claim that the police used phone calls from a Home Office whistleblower Christopher Galley in a bid to entrap Green, trying to persuade him to call the shadow minister.

The Independent reports that the Commons offices of Green and other senior Tories are routinely swept for bugs, and that there is a fear among MPs that the security services now have an open door to snoop, while John Rentoul argues that the police are now a law unto themselves.

Meanwhile, the Sunday Times focuses on Scotland Yard, reporting that it is in a state of turmoil, with senior police officials criticising its new boss and admitting the handling of the Green arrest had been “catastrophic”, while David Blunkett has called on the cabinet to review the process by which the police have access to the offices and confidential material of MPs.

The Observer’s editorial argues that Brown’s silence betrays Parliament, while Andrew Rawnsley compares the situation to “Harare, Minsk, or Rangoon”. Matthew d’Ancona in the Sunday Telegraph says that Labour doesn’t mind leaks – so long as it is doing the leaking: “the arrest has turned Mr Green into the Andrew Sachs of politics”.

Finally, the Sunday Mirror reports on Nick Clegg slagging off his colleagues while on a packed aeroplane:

He revealed his dislike for Steve Webb… “Webb must go,” he said. “He’s a problem. I can’t stand the man. We need a new spokesman. We have to move him. We need someone with good ideas. At the moment, they just don’t add up.”

…He then slated rising star Julia Goldsworthy. “We have to move her too. She gets patronised. And we can’t give her Foreign. She’s just not equipped to do it. Huhne also came in for a battering. Clegg dismissed him for the key Environment job by saying the shadow cabinet needed someone “more emotionally intelligent”. He then talked of demoting Huhne.”

Double Carpet

CONSERVATIVES 43% (+3)
LABOUR 32% (-5)
LIB DEMS 15% (+3)

Mori jumps from 3-point lead to 11-point lead

According to comments on the previous thread, Sky News is reporting that in tomorrow’s Observer newspaper, Ipsos Mori have a new poll which is startlingly different to their previous offering, which famously reduced the Tory lead to three points. Their latest poll is far more in line with what we have seen recently from other pollsters, such as yesterday’s ICM.

With the spreadbetting markets already having factored in the ICM post-PBR Conservative leads, I would be surprised if this confirmation of the PBR’s failure to nurture the Labour ‘bounce-back’ had any significant further effect. The question now is how the public will react to the ongoing saga of Damien Green’s arrest.

UPDATE (00:40): The new poll article is now up on the Guardian/Observer website

Morus

Does Sir Hugh Orde benefit the most?

Paddy Power (who else) are running a market on who is going to be appointed the next permanent Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police Service.

The two clear favourites for the job, according to media sources, were Sir Paul Stephenson (the Deputy Commissioner, and currently Acting Commissioner following Sir Ian Blair’s departure yesterday) and Sir Hugh Orde (the Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland).

After the debacle of police officers from the Counter-Terrorism Unit conducting a search of a Parliamentary office, and with video footage rumoured to follow, surely Paul Stephenson’s 11/8 looks very poor value? I would say that the 4/1 available on Hugh Orde is by far the better bet, and I would consider covering bets on the next few candidates on the list as well (Firewall strategy courtesy of our own Peter the Punter).

Whoever is given the job, I cannot believe that Sir Paul Stephenson’s chances are as good as they were yesterday – he will not have pleased the Government (who are washing their hands of his decision), the Conservatives (who are livid), or the Mayor of London (whose concerns were not heeded). Is there value here?

Morus

As Mike points out, there has been an astonishing move towards the Tories on the General Election spreadbetting markets. Spreadfair are showing a Conservative seats midpoint of 352.5 up from 340.5 on Thursday, and Sporting Index are up to 347 from 339. This represents a move from Labour to the Tories of around 10 seats, giving them an estimated majority of 50. I’m having problems accessing the IG Index website, but when I do, I’ll update the PB.com ‘Balance of Money Index’. These shifts will be due largely to the ICM poll yesterday, as well as the growing concern around ‘Green-gate’.