Sporting Index Spread Markets

At what stage will Labour bottom out?

The above are the latest Commons seats spread prices from SportingIndex which have seen further movement away from Labour and an advance for the Lib Dems. Brown’s party is now at its lowest ever level following the latest two seat shift.

On the other main market, Extrabet, the numbers are broadly the same – the only difference being the Lib Dem spread which is at 46 – 49 seats.

Only the Tory level has remained static and my guess is that we won’t see much movement there until new polls come out.

Since the budget we have only had ComRes and YouGov surveys and I would really like to see an ICM or a Populus just to provide reinforcement that they are in the same territory.

On a personal level my Labour sell and Lib Dem buy positions have now moved enough to move than cover the difference between the buy and sell price so, theoretically at least, I could close them down now and make a profit.

Mike Smithson

Could he be the stalking horse to bring Brown down?

LabourHome is carrying a piece suggesting that “former Cabinet Minister is rumoured to be prepared to stand as a stalking horse candidate to trigger a leadership election”

Clarke has always been one of Brown’s most furious Labour party critics and quite often when “former cabinet minsters” are quoted on Brown-related issues the assumption is that it’s the former home secretary. Certainly Clarke has never been at the top of Gord’s Christmas card list.

Iain Dale, meanwhile has his own angle on this reporting “..a very reputable Labour parliamentary source claims that “Gordon is hating being Prime Minister.”

Perhaps the most dangerous assumption we can make is that things will go on as they are. In the current febrile atmosphere something might just snap.

Mike Smithson

Click here to watch

Was it a mistake to allow Dave to muscle in?

Some interesting debate on the previous thread over whether Nick Clegg was right to allow Cameron to be part of his big moment in the immediate aftermath of yesterday afternoon’s vote.

Ben Brogan in his Telegraph blog was no doubt about its significance and ran a piece under the heading “A picture that changes politics?”. He went on about Clegg: “.. His willingness to share the glory with Dave shows political smarts and a keen eye for an irresistible photo. We are still a long way from coalition politics, but the more the polls point to a hung Parliament, the more today will take on significance”

Labour is far less enthusiastic for the idea of a more united opposition must add further to the jitters of MPs. Tom Harris blogs under the headline “Just how much of a mug is Nick Clegg?” – an approach that suggests that he for one senses the real danger of the others ganging up on his party.

For in electoral terms this sends out messages to several different segments of voters that could affect the outcome in key marginals.

In LAB>CON seats it could encourage more Lib Dems to vote tactically to get Labour out while at the same time causing those considering switching to Labour to think twice.

In LD>CON seats it might make the Lib Dem defences a tad easier. It’s going to be a bit harder for the Tories to claim that a vote for Clegg’s party is a vote for Brown.

In LAB>LD contests it might encourage more Tory tactical voting but it could also make Labour supporters more determined to turn-out.

The pictures from yesterday are going to appear time and time again in all sorts of different forms. You can see them being featured in Tory leaflets in marginal Labour seats as well as in LD leaflets where Clegg’s party is the main challenger.

So should Clegg have shared the moment? Yes – his party might well end up with a handful more seats than it was expecting – although there’s a danger that it’s national vote share will decline.

General Election constituency betting

Mike Smithson

The Independent

Is it really all over over for Gord?

With the Prime Minister due to face another difficult vote in the commons let’s spare a thought this morning for the person who will be preparing the daily press summary at Number 10 for Gordon Brown.

For even though BBC News regarded the defeat on the Ghurkas issue as a minor down-bulletin story yesterday (a disgrace showing an inept sense of news priorities which opens them up to a charge of bias) it’s splashed over many of the front pages – aided no doubt by the photogenic presence of Joanna Lumley.

One particularly scathing attack is John Rentoul’s column in the Independent – something that could make grim reading for a PM who is notoriously sensitive about criticism – for it goes beyond the standard analysis and describes in cruel detail how he was being laughed at.

Rentoul, a Blair biographer and certainly no friend of the Brownites, is merciless in his description and what makes it so strong is that his argument rings so true. It does appear very bad for Brown.

Rentoul writes:“..The Prime Minister has lost his way. He has lost his place in the script. You know it is over when Nick Clegg cuts it as a figure of moral authority, and Brown is reduced to making up numbers such as £1.4bn as the cost of allowing all 36,000 Gurkhas the right to live here….Brown has lost the argument about the Gurkhas so comprehensively that David Cameron did not even need to rehearse his Mr Angry act. He did Mr Bipartisan instead, congratulating Clegg for setting the pace on the issue. It was a smart bit of tactical cross-party generosity that diminished Brown further.

No, you know it is over when BBC journalists start interviewing each other about how much the Prime Minister’s “authority” has been reduced. They were at it this week over the withdrawal of Brown’s plan to reform MPs’ expenses. They used to do it to Tony Blair when he was at bay over the cash for honours investigation, but they didn’t laugh at him. Blair was spared the added humiliation of YouTube ridicule.

You know it is over when black is reported as white. When everything is fitted to the template of retreat, disarray and incompetence….”

Rentoul goes on to make the argument he has put before – Labour could stem the expected election losses by switching leader. His personal favourite is Alas Johnson. We have discussed endlessly on PB how this could happen and I do believe that there is something in Rentoul’s thinking. A lot of the Labour polling collapse is down to Brown’s unpopularity and not the party. If he is out of the way then perhaps the outcome would be different.

It’s for this reason that I’ve been quite measured in my spread-betting. I’m a Labour seller at 228 seats but I’m not risking too much just in case there is a different leader.

Mike Smithson