Will the Sun’s move dispirit the party even more?

Labour’s big remaining hope as it entered the conference season was that Brown’s speech would exceed the low expectations and provide the platform for some sort of recovery.

Last year the PM’s “no time for a novice” phrase caught the mood of the time and for the final quarter of 2008 Cameron’s Tories were on the back foot.

A lot was riding on being able to do the same again – a prospect that looks a lot more challenging following the news that Britain’s biggest selling daily paper is to throw its weight behind the Tories.

It had been clear for months that the Sun would decide this way – but it’s the timing, a few hours after Brown’s big speech, that will magnify the damage.

For what this does is to change the whole dynamic of the media coverage which in the main had not been too bad. It will, I believe, have an impact in the polls if only to contain the Labour conference surge that we had seen in the tracker surveys.

For all the Labour movement hates the Sun almost everybody is painfully aware of its influence and the part it played in undermining Kinnock in 1992 and then John Major in 1997.

And how dispiriting for the delegates who’ve travelled to Brighton in the hope that they could return to their constituencies energised with a fresh determination to fight the coming battle.

The Sun’s move is a deliberately timed body-blow that will have a big impact.

UPDATE 5AM: I’ve just opened my emails to discover that just after I had gone to bed the Sun sent me a copy of the front page featured above. This is the first time that any newspaper has ever done that which has allowed me to reproduce a much more detailed picture on the site.

Mike Smithson

Within four weeks of this conference speech Iain Duncan Smith faced a confidence motion which he lost. Michael Howard became Conservative leader.

Mike Smithson

You can see more of Marf’s work at LondonSketchbook.com

Meanwhile we now have the YouGov post speech poll – the first figure is after the speech – the second is before it.

It should be noted that the sample was simply people who watched the speech – it was not demographically or politically weighted and as Anthony Wells at UKPollingReport observes “People who watched his speech are likely to be a lot more politically aware, a lot more well disposed towards Labour to start with (I suspect you’re more likely to watch the speech of a party you like), and hence probably more receptive to Brown’s message.”

So the following is just about meaningless as a test of representative opinion.

Do you think Gordon Brown is doing well or badly as prime minister?
Very well 21 10
Fairly well 29 28
TOTAL WELL 50 38
Fairly badly 18 21
Very badly 31 41
TOTAL BAD 50 62
Don’t know 0 0

Broadly speaking do you think Gordon Brown is…?
A capable leader 51 38
Not a capable leader 46 59
Don’t know 3 3

Broadly speaking do you think Gordon Brown is…?
In touch with the concerns of people like you 53 33
Out of touch with the concerns of people like you 45 64
Don’t know 2 3

Broadly speaking do you think Gordon Brown is…?
An asset to the Labour Party 52 37
A liability to the Labour Party 43 58
Don’t know 5 6

How would you rate Gordon Brown’s speech this afternoon?
Excellent 33
Good 30
EXCELLENT & GOOD 63
Fair 22
Poor 11
Bad 4
POOR & BAD 15
Don’t know 0

These are not numbers to use to try to forecast the general election. We’ve seen it in the post-debate poll in the US elections – first reactions rarely tell us anything.

It will be the same next week with Cameron speech. Wait for the mid-October voting intention number – everything else is fluff.

Mike Smithson

Brown speech continuation thread