Will a big line-up make it harder to predict?

Above is a clip from the Guardian on the day that voting packs went out on the last occasion that Labour’s election machinery was used – the June 2007 deputy election.

At this point, just seventeen days before the result was announced, the firm favourite at 6/5 was Hilary Benn. Behind him in the betting came Alan Johnson (2/1), John Cruddas (4/1), Harriet Harman 6/1, Hazel Blears 16/1 and Peter Hain 33/1.

So with not that much time to go the eventual winner was fourth in the betting while the favourite finished up fourth.

I raise this to make the point that I’ve emphasised before – because the Labour leadership election is an exhaustive ballot then second, third or even fourth preferences could be critical.

And the more candidates that are in the race the more difficult prediction becomes.

If a fourth, and possibly a fifth, does gather enough nominations then , I’d suggest, David Miliband’s task becomes harder.

Mike Smithson

“..I think I will save the events of the last 45 mins for my memoirs. I wish I could tell u what’s going on, but if I did I’d have to kill u..”

Just over half an hour after Tweeting with news that David Laws was planning to resign Iain Dale published another Tweet, featured above, which I have been puzzling over ever since. This came out shortly after 7pm and before the news of the resignation got picked up by the mainstream media.

It sounds like he was involved, in some way, with the dramatic events but was not, and is not, in a position to tell us what this is about.

Yet from his appearances an hour or so later on the BBC News channel he seemed to be hinting quite strongly that an early return for Laws might be on the cards.

Such a scenario also fits with the resignation statement itself, the letter that David Cameron sent and the public comment that Nick Clegg made in the aftermath.

Putting the pieces together I wonder whether during these critical hours Laws was being advised in some way by Dale. He was acting as a sort of “prisoner’s” friend.

Both men are, of course, gay and the blogger would be an obvious person for the former minister to turn to. Dale had gone through a similar challenge about telling his parents of his sexuality and only did so when he was 40.

My theory, for what it is worth, is that Downing Street saw that carrying on was impossible and that Laws was being given assurances that he could be back quite quickly depending on the reports of the Standards Commissioner. It was that, I surmise, that Dale and him discussed.

BETTING UPDATE:
The latest prices on When, if ever, will Laws return as a minister are:
During 2010 – 25%
H1 2011 – 25%
H2 2011 – 30%
After that or not at all – 50%

Mike Smithson

I’m hoping that there’ll be a betting market up quite soon on whether David Laws will return to government as a minister.

Certainly the warm tone of David Cameron’s letter seems to indicate that this might be possible.

The PM concluded: “I hope that, in time, you will be able to serve again as I think it is absolutely clear that you have a huge amount to offer our country”.

Peter Mandelson, it will be recalled, had several comebacks. Clearly a lot depends on the Standard Commissioner’s report on the Laws case.

UPDATE: Betting opens on “Will Laws return as a minister”