…I’m off to France for a few days

First thing in the morning we are taking the Eurostar to Paris and then the TGV to Bordeaux for a short break. As I think I mentioned I had a small operation in July and this took a lot out of me.

I won’t won’t be posting very much but there are a number of guest slots lined up as well as the PB AV debate with arguments for and against.

Also the site’s guest editors, MORUS, Paul Maggs and David Herdson will be making their own contributions.

Mike Smithson

Daily Mail

Is everything still being defined by the ex-leaders ?

The big news for Labour as we move into September should be the start of voting in the first contested election for a leader since 1994.

Instead the media remain obsessed with the Blair-Brown years and “what really went on”. Just look at this week. A couple of days ago the Mail on Sunday had the second part of the serialisation of the Chris Mullin diaries. Yesterday a short series began on Radio 4 with an abridged spoken word version of the same book.

And on top of that the big one – the publication on Thursday of Tony Blair’s book “The Journey” and the associated media hype.

It is Labour Past rather than Labour Future that the media is interested in.

Look at the the scheduling tomorrow evening in prime time by the BBC of a special programme devoted to an interview with Tony Blair. That’s already been recorded and, as the above piece from the Mail shows, a spin war has broken out over what Blair might or might not have said.

The report goes: “Mr Blair will defend his role in the Iraq War and pass judgment on Mr Brown’s handling of the financial crisis and the election campaign, and the performance of the coalition Government. Mr Brown’s allies are preparing a counterblast amid reports that Mr Blair will blame his successor for losing the election by turning away from his New Labour reforms.

He is likely to stress that his Chancellor and successor was solely responsible for the regulatory free-for-all that led to the economic crisis…”

My reading of Tim Shipman’s story is that this has come from the Brown camp and they are seeking to get their retaliation in early – a classic spin tactic from the whole Blair-Brown period.

The problem for Labour is that the Brown-Blair war gets more fascinating the more detail that comes out. The result – lots and lots of coverage.

In terms of the current leadership battle I wonder whether this might hurt David Miliband a bit – he’s the one contender who is most associated with Tony Blair. In the betting Betfair have DM at 1.39 with EdM having moved out to 4.

Mike Smithson

The Sun

Is this taking defence cuts too far?

The main news on the front page of the Times which is covered at length in its sister paper the Sun, is about a plan for Britain and France to “share” their aircraft carriers as part of massive economy measure.

The idea is that Britain would scrap or downgrade one of the two replacement carriers which are already under construction at a cost of more than £5bn and that that one of three ships – one French, two British – was always on duty patrolling the seas. The implications for shipyard jobs are enormous as well as the strategic issues.

No doubt in the coming months we’ll hear a lot about the Falklands war in 1982 and the role of the Royal Navy then. Would the French have sanctioned such an invasion if it was “their” aircraft carrier that was “on duty”?

Apparently Cameron and Sarkozy are expected to outline the proposal in a November summit and the arrangement is expected to come into force soon after.

This is getting into very dangerous political territory for the coalition. The Royal Navy has had such an important role in the history of Britain and is deep in the national psyche. That we cannot afford to maintain its role without doing a deal with our traditional “enemy” across the channel will to many people appear shocking.

It does send out a message about the seriousness of the government in its attempt to curtail spending and could become hugely symbolic. Maybe that’s the idea.

One thing that strikes me – only a Tory Defence Secretary could ever propose such a plan. Imagine the reaction from the blue team if it had come from Labour?

Mike Smithson

Guardian

Who’ll win the old-Etonian stand-off over Cross-Rail?

The big development over Boris that Morus only touched on briefly in the last post was the huge row that’s apparently developing between Johnson (Eton and Balliol College Oxford) and Cameron (Eton and Brasenose College Oxford) over plans by Osborne (St. Paul’s and Magdalen College Oxford) to force a 5% cut to the £16bn London CrossRail project.

According to the Guardian, though denied by the Mayor’s office, Johnson has let it be known has let it be known that if all the money is not forthcoming then he will stand for parliament at the next available Westminster by-election. This, of course, raises the possibility of mayoral by election in London involving the capital’s 6m voters.

What the veracity of this is we do not know but Boris is a wily political operator who could be a big threat to Cameron’s leadership if he returned to the commons as an MP.

This could have an impact on a range of betting markets. Even though he is not an MP Boris is the betting favourite to be the next Tory leader. Ladbrokes have him at 5/1 the same as Michael Gove but tighter than the 8/1 against William Hague who has seen an easing.

Boris is also the 4/5 favourite to win the 2012 London Mayoral race – though Bet365′s 13/8 against Ken winning starts to look quite tempting. He has, of course, to be selected as Labour’s candidate – a party election that is taking place in September.

The problem with the “Boris returning to Westminster at a by election” theory is that safe Tory seats don’t come up very often. In the past decade only one sitting Tory MPs has died causing a by election – the total of Labour MP deaths in the same period was ten.

If Boris was to try to get back then the best route would be if a current Tory MP decided to stand down to make way for him – and that is fraught with danger. Voters have a history of punishing parties that cause unnecessary by elections. The Tories also have a miserable record defending by election seats while they are in government.

Mike Smithson