…YouGov points to a 1997-scale LABour landlside

Update – Labour lead on 14: Latest YouGov/The Sun results 14th May CON 31%, LAB 45%, LD 7%, (UKIP 8%); APP -42 y-g.co/JPOlcP

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2012

The YouGov LAB 45% CON 31% split is slightly better for Labour than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide when the voting wasLAB 44.4% CON 31.4%

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Tonight’s YouGov lead for Labour of 14% is the highestrecorded by the firm since it started polling 10years sgo

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

YouGov have Labour taking the lead for the first time on “handling the economy”

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

LAB has still some way to go before it gets to what the Tories were polling in 2008. On May 8 that year YouGov had 49/23/17 – a 26% lead

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

But which one will be most accurate?

There another London mayoral poll out, an online survey from Opinium - the online firm which never seems to want to communicate with me. (Hi guys could you put me on your email list?). It has Boris 43%/Ken 37%/Paddick 7%/Jones 6%/Benita 3%/ UKIP 3%.

Opinium’s figures for the top two are pretty close to YouGov and the overall picture from five different firms is that Boris will be staying at City Hall. In the face of such evidence it is very hard to call it any other way.

It is not often that we get the chance to test a number of pollsters against a real outcome and each of their performances will be quoted time and time again.

The big battle could be for the London Assembly on which there are just 25 places. Its main power is that it can, with a two thirds majority, block the mayor’s budget. So if the Tories are reduced to 8 or fewer seats the Boris’s second terms might be a tad more challenging than the first.

YouGov were suggesting from their figures that the blues were going to win fewer than nine places.

One of my bets that looks promising is the one that Richard Nabavi recommended on Tuesday night – the 2/1 that was then available on Boris winning the mayoralty and LAB winning most seats on the assembly. The bet is no longer available.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Why are punters shunning the Labour standard bearer?

JUST TEN pounds has been placed on Ken Livingstone to win the London Mayoral election since Siobhan Benita entered the frame according to Ladbrokes.

Whilst Siobhan Benita’s odds tumbled the bookies didn’t register a single bet for Ken Livingstone as his odds drifted out to 5/2.

The trend has been bucked however and one brave punter has staked £10 on the Labour candidate – whilst Benita racks up thousands of pounds in the same time frame.

Boris Johnson remains the odds-on favourite at 3/10.

Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: “Ken has been as popular as a leper with a bell for the last week. Someone’s finally stumped up a tenner for him while Benita whips political punters into a betting frenzy.”

Dare I say it but if this is what is happening shouldn’t Ladbrokes move the Ken price out even further? A price of 5/2 seems more little mean.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Will 600+ gains underpin EdM’s leadership?

We are in that silly time that we see every April when the parties try to tell us how badly they are going to do in the May locals while the academic specialists who monitor this closely set out what they think we should expect.

A central figure in this is Professor Colin Rallings (The R of the famous Rallings & Thrasher partnership who do thing like work out the “official general election notionals” whenever boundary changes come in). Next Wednesday I’m due to attend a special briefing with him organised by the Political Studies Association.

Today in the Times he’s quoted in the Times as saying he expects Labour to pick up more than 600 seats, with 200 gains in unitary authorities and at least 120 in Wales.

Everything in this, of course, is based on what happened last time, in most cases 2008, and the number of seats at stake.

After each year’s local elections Rallings & Thrasher compute from results what’s known as the National Equivalent Vote Share. Four years ago it was CON 43: LAB 24: LD 23. In May 2011 the split was CON 38: LAB 37: LD 16.

The Lib Dems will have far fewer losses next month than the 748 of last year simply because there are far fewer of their seats at stake.

NOTE: Yesterday my current health problems prevented me from attending a Political Studies Association briefing on London by Tony Travers and Patrick Dunleavy of the LSE. I’ve got their slides and will be doing a future post on that.

@MikeSmithsonOGH