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	<title>politicalbetting.com</title>
	<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com</link>
	<description>The web&#039;s premier resource for political betting.</description>
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		<title>Polly Toynbee, PA, the Guardian and a voodoo poll</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The Guardian&#8217;s Polly Toynbee tweet Sunday February 5th Vote here at the BMJ site on whether the NHS and Social Care Bill should be withdrawnbmj.com &#8212; Polly Toynbee (@pollytoynbee) February 5, 2012 Press Association report 8 February 2012 02:54 &#8220;..More than 90% of readers of the British Medical Journal (BMJ) believe the Government&#8217;s health reforms [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/09/polly-toynbee-pa-the-guardian-and-a-voodoo-poll/</link>
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		<title>At last &#8211; Betfair pay out to Santorum Iowa punters</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Well done to the betting exchange The big political betting news tonight is that the disputed Iowa caucus markets has now been settled by Betfair who have paid out to Santorum punters. This will have cost them a fair packet because they originally settled in favour of Romney backers after the numbers on the night [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/08/at-last-betfair-pay-out-to-santorum-iowa-punters/</link>
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		<title>Marf on this bitterly cold Wednesday</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Recent Threads]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/08/marf-on-this-bitterly-cold-wednesday/</link>
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		<title>Rick Santorum makes it three out of three</title>
		<description><![CDATA[My 100/1 shot wins Colorado It&#8217;s been a dramatic, and for me enormously profitable, night in the US election campaign. Three states were up for grabs in GOP race and all three went to Rick Santorum. Missouri, which had a non-binding primary, saw the former Pennsylvania senator come in with 55% of the vote to [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/08/rick-santorum-makes-it-three-out-of-three/</link>
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		<title>Another session of US results for PBNightHawks</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Staying up late on Tuesday nights to watch more results in the US election has almost become routine. For me this is a big betting night having got on Santorum in both Minnesota and Missouri at quite nice odds. If the polling is right then I win a very nice sum and the pleasure of [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/07/another-session-of-us-results-for-pbnighthawks/</link>
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		<title>Boundary review expected to be completed a lot earlier than expected</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The final plan could go to MPs June 2013 It is my understanding from a party official who is close to what is going on is that the process of agreeing the new electoral map is progressing much faster than had been expected. The result is that the crucial commons vote to rubber stamp the [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/07/boundary-review-expected-to-be-completed-a-lot-earlier-than-expected/</link>
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		<title>Final polls have Santorum winning 2 of today&#8217;s 3 states</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Missouri primary Santorum likely to win Missouri where he has 45% to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Ron Paul: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/b… &#8212; PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) February 7, 2012 Minnesota Caucuses Santorum has good chance to win MN where he leads with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt, 20% for Paul: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/b… &#8212; PublicPolicyPolling [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/07/final-polls-have-santorum-winning-2-of-todays-3-states/</link>
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		<title>Welcome Monday PB NightHawks</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Update 6th Feb &#8211; Tories ahead by 1 &#8211; Latest YouGov/Sun results 6th Feb CON 41%, LAB 40%, LD 8%; APP -22 y-g.co/AtHnZr #UKPolitics &#8212; YouGov (@YouGov) February 6, 2012 Tonight&#8217;s YouGov is in the tweet above. I&#8217;m a bit disappointed that we haven&#8217;t got a national telephone poll tonight. It used to be that [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/06/welcome-monday-pb-nighthawks/</link>
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		<title>Are you ready for Wednesday&#8217;s possible Santorum surge?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Betfair Politics As I&#8217;ve explained before I&#8217;m not betting on outcomes in the GOP race but where I think the short-term movements in the betting will be. The idea is to try to back at a long price and then lay as sentiment changes and the price moves in. There are elections in three states [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/06/are-you-ready-for-wednesdays-possible-santorum-surge/</link>
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		<title>Would an independent Scotland be refused an AAA rating?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[BBC Could the YES vote be affected by possible downgrading? The front page of the Financial Times this morning is carrying a story by its Economics Editor, Chris Giles, about the sovereign debt rating that a new independent Scotland would receive. Giles writes that the paper has been told that an independent Scotland would not [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/06/would-an-independent-scotland-be-refused-a-aaa-rating/</link>
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		<title>Has Iain Martin missed the fixed parliament &#8220;Catch 22&#8243;?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Why would Labour support a Tory call for an election? My previous article on Iain Martin&#8217;s Sunday Telegraph suggestion that there might be an early election has prompted him to respond on his blog with a post headed &#8220;Early elections and the fallacy of fixed parliaments&#8221;. But in neither his Telegraph article nor his blog [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/05/has-iain-martin-missed-the-fixed-parliament-catch-22/</link>
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		<title>Why Iain Martin is wrong about an early election</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Telegraph Getting the new boundaries is Dave/George&#8217;s biggest priority Iain Martin has a provocative piece in the Sunday Telegraph in which he asserts that the coalition will break down next year and that Cameron should be preparing for an early election. He argues that the Fixed Parliament Act, setting the date for May 2015, can [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/05/why-iain-martin-is-wrong-about-an-early-election/</link>
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		<title>For PB overnighters: The Nevada caucus &amp; Newt&#8217;s statement</title>
		<description><![CDATA[It looks as though it&#8217;ll be an eventful night It&#8217;s been caucus day in Nevada in the latest stage of the Republican party process to find the nominee to take the battle to Obama in November. All the signs are that the from-runner, Mitt Romney is going to have a big victory. Nevada borders on [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/04/for-pb-overnighters-the-nevada-caucus-newts-statement/</link>
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		<title>Suddenly the buzz is for Santorum</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Poll has him beating Obama Rumours of Newt quitting There&#8217;s been a pile of activity in the White House race betting following reports that Newt Gingrich might quit after tonight&#8217;s Nevada caucuses and a new poll from Rasmussen that has Santorum doing better against Obama than Romney. The poll is the first one ever to [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/04/suddenly-the-buzz-is-for-santorum/</link>
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		<title>What will the year&#8217;s second election day bring?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Are this year&#8217;s most significant UK election on Nov 15? The usual highlight of the electoral year in the UK takes place on the first Thursday in May, which is when the local council elections and devolved parliamentary elections are scheduled, and when general elections have been planned for in recent years. This year, it’s [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/04/what-will-the-years-second-election-day-bring/</link>
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		<title>Into the weekend with PB NightHawks</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Have a good evebning This is our regular open thread to take PBers through the night. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/03/into-the-weekend-with-pb-nighthawks/</link>
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		<title>Next cabinet exit &#8211; a new market goes up</title>
		<description><![CDATA[table.tableizer-table {border: 6px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} Cabinet Minister Ladbrokes odds Party Cheryl Gillan 6/4 CON Andrew Lansley 5/1 CON Vince Cable 6/1 LD Ken Clarke 8/1 CON William Hague 10/1 CON Baroness [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/03/next-cabinet-exit-a-new-market-goes-up/</link>
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		<title>Marf on the morning&#8217;s news</title>
		<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/03/marf-on-the-mornings-news/</link>
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		<title>Only one story this morning&#8230;</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Joey Jones at LibDem retreat in Eastbourne confirms that Chris Huhne will be charge. Huhne expected to resign from Cabinet &#8212; adamboulton (@adamboultonSKY) February 3, 2012 Huhne speeding D-Day. I still love the fact that Aussie slang for a fast driver is&#8230;. &#8216;a hoon&#8217;. f24.my/xItDqA &#8212; Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 3, 2012 Huhne and his [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/03/only-one-story-this-morning/</link>
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		<title>After an eventful day welcome to the PB NightHawks cafe</title>
		<description><![CDATA[My selection of this evening&#8217;s tweets:- Just 41 people contributed 25% of Romney&#8217;s campaign war chest&#8230;pwire.at/xSJbs1 &#8212; Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) February 2, 2012 #GOP: Romney 31% / Gingrich 25% / Santorum 17% / Paul 12% / Other 2% / Unsure 13% (Gallup nat&#8217;l tracking, Jan 28-Feb 1) j.mp/nEDXyw &#8212; PollingReport.com (@pollreport) February 2, 2012 Clegg [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/02/after-an-eventful-day-welcome-to-the-pb-nighthawks-cafe/</link>
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		<title>Does this mean Huhne&#8217;s going to be charged or not charged?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Telegraph What can we read into this afternoon&#8217;s news? In a discussion over a drink at the weekend my lawyer friend who&#8217;s had a career as a prosecutor suggested that one of the major considerations for the CPS over the Huhne case would be whether it would be possible to hold a fair trial. This [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/02/does-this-mean-huhnes-going-to-be-charged-or-not-charged/</link>
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		<title>The referendum: How changing the question affects response</title>
		<description><![CDATA[table.tableizer-table {border: 6px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} Ashcroft poll on Scottish Referendum For independence Against independence &#8220;Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?&#8221; 41 59 &#8220;Do you agree or disagree [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/02/the-referendum-how-changing-the-question-affects-response/</link>
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		<title>Wednesday night in the PB Nighthawks Cafe</title>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8230; My selection of this evening&#8217;s tweets:- BBC must&#8217;ve run this story as a favour to Tories &#8211; 7-child family needing &#62;£26k benefits spends £100/wk on fags &#038; booze bbc.co.uk/news/uk-168121… &#8212; Greg Callus (@Morus1516) February 1, 2012 Forfeiture committee said it couldn’t strip Fred of his ‘K’ in 2009 bit.ly/zes6ZR &#8212; Gary Gibbon&#8217;s Blog (@GaryGibbonBlog) [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/01/wednesday-night-in-the-pb-nighthawks-cafe/</link>
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		<title>Is EdM now off the &#8220;danger list&#8221;?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Are his commons performances restoring confidence? Less than a fortnight ago Ed Miliband&#8217;s future as LAB leader seemed very much in doubt. William Hills took some big bets and concluded that the incumbent was a gonner. The price against Ed not surviving until the general election moved in to 8/11 and you could have got [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/01/is-edm-now-off-the-danger-list/</link>
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		<title>Can Gingrich really go on for 46 more states?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[After his Florida thumping Newt says he staying As expected Mitt Romney won Florida overnight with a fourteen point victory. It was a huge result for the ex-governor of Massachusetts and one, surely, that makes it even more likely that he&#8217;ll be the nominee. But Newt was defiant an hour or so ago. The big [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/02/01/can-gingrich-really-go-on-for-46-more-states/</link>
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		<title>A new phone poll &amp; Florida for PB NightHawks</title>
		<description><![CDATA[LDs up 3 while LAB regain the lead There&#8217;s a new ComRes telephone poll out for the Independent and the figures, with changes on the last phone poll from the firm are in the chart above. Not much change except the Lib Dem share moving up 3 to 14%. The non-VI questions all follow ComRes&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/31/a-new-phone-poll-florida-for-pb-nighthawks/</link>
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		<title>Florida: Remember how it looked just 9 days ago?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8230; How big will Mitt win by tonight? It is extraordinary that only nine days ago Newt had a big lead in Florida and looked all set to take a second successive state. As we all know it hasn&#8217;t actually happened like that and if some polls are right Mitt will win with a double [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/31/florida-remember-how-it-looked-just-9-days-ago/</link>
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		<title>Ipsos-MORI puts support for Scottish independence at 39pc</title>
		<description><![CDATA[NO voters say they are less likely to change their mind A new telephone poll of Scottish voters by Ipsos-MORI for the Times puts support for independence at 39% &#8211; which is just one point up on the firm&#8217;s last poll in December. The question that was put was the one proposed last week by [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/31/ipsos-mori-puts-support-for-scottish-independence-at-39pc/</link>
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		<title>The PB NightHawks Cafe is open</title>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8230; Welcome and join tonight&#8217;s big political conversation Here are a couple of tweets from with the past half hour. Speculation in Brussels that Cam is delayed because he is having to clear his lines with Clegg &#8212; Tim Shipman (Mail) (@ShippersUnbound) January 30, 2012 Santorum and Gingrich both beat Romney 1 on 1 in [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/30/the-pb-nighthawks-cafe-is-open/</link>
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		<title>Can Guido secure 73,717 signatures by Saturday?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Is he in danger of losing losing the E-petition war? Back in the summer Guido launched a campaign to get capital punishment restored for certain cases of serious murder and he set up a petition on the Number 10 e-petitions site. The aim was to reach the threshold of 100,000 within six months so it [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/30/can-guido-secure-73717-signatures-by-saturday/</link>
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		<title>How many 16 year olds would bother to vote?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Should the franchise be extended? With suggestions from the SNP that the franchise should be extended to 16 year olds in the referendum there was a good article over the weekend by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University. He sifts through what polling there is and concludes &#8220;&#8230;we cannot presume that the opinions of younger [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/30/how-many-16-year-olds-would-bother-vote/</link>
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		<title>It looks as though it&#8217;s all over for Newt in Florida</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Some ugly polls for Gingrich this morning. Our forecast has Romney +13 in Florida, 95% chance of winning. nyti.ms/ywKYEp &#8212; Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 29, 2012 Last Sunday he was 8% ahead With Florida going into its final day of campaigning tomorrow it looks pretty certain that Mitt Romney will chalk up his second victory [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/29/it-looks-as-though-its-all-over-for-newt-in-florida/</link>
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		<title>Clegg gets best leader ratings in nearly a year</title>
		<description><![CDATA[And Miliband moves up from last week&#8217;s record low This week&#8217;s leader ratings from YouGov are just out and all three main party leaders see improvements on a week ago. Camerons &#8220;Well/Badly&#8221; figures are 46/47 making a net minus 1. Last week it was minus 3. Ed Miliband is on 20/68 which is a net [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/29/clegg-gets-best-leader-ratings-in-nearly-a-year/</link>
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		<title>PB NightHawks on the day on the day of RBS bonuses</title>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8230; The big news today, of course, has been that the chairman of RBS, Sir Philip Hampton has given up a £1.4m shares bonus due next month. This will probably end the row which has caused problems for both government and opposition. Meanwhile it costs nothing to join tonight&#8217;s conversation in the PB NightHawks cafe. [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/28/pb-nighthawks-on-the-day-on-the-day-of-rbs-bonuses/</link>
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		<title>The Florida polling continues to look good for Mitt</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Mitt up by around 10 points on the first round of calls for our Florida poll&#8230;this one may end up being a snooze &#8212; PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012 Santorum has the best favorability numbers out of all the candidates in Florida but still not picking up much support &#8212; PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012 [...]]]></description>
		<link>http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/01/28/the-florida-polling-continues-to-look-good-for-mitt/</link>
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