Back in mid July I wrote here that backing LAB to get a poll lead during the remaining part of 2021 looked like a good bet. First amongst my reason was there was always the possibility of an outlier. The context for the post was a then new Smarkets market on when Labour would next get a poll lead. At the time I was flush with my winnings on the LDs in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and placed what…
Remember the polls in September 2000 Dramatic things can happen politically when motorists are unable to buy the precious liquid that enables their cars to move. September 2000 was a case in point when after years of Blair’s LAB totally dominating politics there was the brief period when Hague’s Tories found themselves in the lead. It didn’t last – the dispute got settled and we could fill up our cars again. I am not saying this will happen now and…
I just wonder whether a LAB leadership contest could be much closer than we think. Ahead of the party conference Starmer is proposing a change in the leadership election rules and prominent figures like Sadiq Khan have come out against. If Starmer fails to get this through he would look even more weakened than he does at the moment. By associating himself so closely on the rule change it could make the conference vote less about the issue itself but…
The important thing for Johnson on his US trip was that unlike many other foreign leaders he had his 90 minutes in the Oval Office with Biden. Even though the US is not quite as powerful as it was pictures like the one above are much treasured by foreign leaders. In terms of policy the big development this week is Biden’s lifting of the ban from November of UK and EU citizens being able to enter the US. This has…
Don and Joe – the last oldie nominees? The latest monthly Gallup poll with is Presdiential approval ratings out and the trend is shown in the chart above. The firm makes the following observation: Except for Donald Trump, every U.S. president since Harry Truman has enjoyed a honeymoon period characterized by above-average approval ratings upon taking office. Biden’s recent slides in approval put him in the company of Trump and Bill Clinton, whose ratings were at or below Biden’s current 43% at some…
Johnson’s meeting with Biden in Washington comes at a moment when the polls suggest that he is not approved of by the majority of Americans. Above is the latest rolling average from Nate Silver’s site. For the President this comes after a series of mishaps including the drone attack in Afghanistan which killed ten people. Apparently the wrong target was hit. The whole point of Biden’s appeal was that he would restore competence after the Trump years.
This will raise questions about Brexit Several of tomorrow’s papers are reporting the challenges facing BoJo in his question to get a post-Brexit trade deal with the US. This is how the Guardian is reporting it: Britain’s hopes of a post-Brexit trade deal with the US have all but evaporated barring a dramatic change of heart from President Biden..Johnson once regarded a bilateral free trade agreement with the US as a key Brexit win, highlighting the prospects for British exporters…
The above chart has been created from the approval rating data in the weekend Opinium poll for the Observer when Johnson was up a bit from his worst ever approval rating as PM earlier in the month. He’s trailing Starmer in most regions but that is deceptive in electoral terms. For Starmer has a significant edge in the regions where there are fewer marginals but it is much closer in England outside London. Indeed Johnson has a lead in the…